Good questions. We all know that hindsight is generally 100% accurate, but all of this was predictable (and predicted) during last year's election campaign. We can thank America's mainstream media for not asking these questions, out loud, during the campaign and for pretending the election was between two equally qualified candidates. Or for pretending that DT was anything more than a reality tv show host and con artist whose worth (and word) is less than that of a plug nickel.
So here we are. Iran has already threatened to shut down the Straits of Hormuz. This morning, it launched missiles at Qatar (possibly at the American Air Force Base there), and Qatar or the US launched missiles in retaliation. And we don't have any evidence that the bombings did what they were purported to do and that 47 is loudly proclaiming made him a hero.
I can’t help but think that all of this would have been unnecessary if Trump had left the JCPOA in place that Obama negotiated and was signed by Iran, most of Western Europe, Russia and China. But of course, he didn’t because it had Obama’s name on it. Trumps decision making is so flawed and driven by his ego and petty vengeance. And he listens only to those who tell him what he wants to her and flatter him. In this case, probably Netanyahu.
The Wag the Dog bombing raid taking attention away from the many flounderings of 47 was an attempt to shed the TACO thing. HIs social media posting "MIGA Make Iran Great Again" is lost in the mess but it is also concerning. What stable genius says that?
I would add one more dread to Peter's list. Was the decision to bomb Iran a careful, thought out decision and plan? Was it one of impulse based on a desire to deflect the American public's attention from its domestic controversies and for Trump to look like a strong, decisive leader on the world stage?. The explanation given so far for this act and its related success reminds me of Bush's assertion of WMD's in Iraq. The claims of total obliteration strikes me as "fake" news, something Trump has warned all of us about. If the act was one of impulse, then can we expect more of the same when Iran retaliates?
I agree with you, Peter. The bombing was more theater in the Trump Show. I can’t imagine what it cost in dollars to use those bombs! Even though Tulsi Gabbard told Trump and others that Iran does not have weapons grade nuclear material Trump refused to believe her. She is his appointed head of intelligence but he doesn’t take her or her agency experts seriously. Why? Maybe because she is a woman and she wasn’t saying what he wanted to hear. God help us all!
Well, the bunker busters alone cost $500M each. By the time the entire cost of this operation is added up, I am guessing the total cost will be about $10B. And, Trump dropped that (no pun intended) without blinking "to defend Israel" from Iran but refuses to spend $2B to defend Ukraine from Russia.
This summer marks the 80th anniversary of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, ending Japanese opposition to ending WWII. Truman was president. I've been musing that Trump sees this air strike against Iranian nuclear capability, together with [soon] ending the war in Ukraine and [soon] helping Israel end Hamas and Hezbollah even though that project has developed into quite a slog as his path to that Nobel Peace Prize.
As to your 1. I think there are, or were, about 15,000 centrifuges at Fordo. These are not like the 250 lb. models on casters we used in chemistry and other labs. These are much larger, hard wired, plumbed, computer driven models that couldn't be simply hauled out on a hand truck, and even if they could have been, hauling 15,000 of them away would have taken enough vehicles to show up on the satellite imagery as a real project.
And there is also the simple reality known to anyone who spent much time in the military; nothing, especially multi-unit let alone mulit-service (in this case at least Air Force and Navy) endeavors EVER goes exactly to plan. So even if the equipment had been removed, there is nothing so far that shows mission success.
As to your 6. Regime change implies something different. Where is there any indication that any organized opposing views are extant in Iran? Sure, it probably wouldn't be wise to be vocal opposition right now, but there has been much written about how the Iranian population has withdrawn from politics altogether.
I think our President, famous for bullying and bombast, has found a much more gratifying stage upon which to practice, and that he doesn't care about your points 2-5.
Trump doesn't care. It remains to be seen how much the rest of us care. Especially once Iran inevitably retaliates. How many times canl the US get fooled into war?
Trump’s approval has been underwater for months, and there’s nothing like a little shock and awe to boost the ratings. Anyway, it worked for Bush. Besides, Iran showed no interest in reviving the nuclear deal Trump walked out on years ago. So, according to Trump, their nuclear sites have now been “totally obliterated.” That’ll teach ‘em. Mission Accomplished – what could possibly go wrong? Don’t worry, be happy.
In typical Trump brain rot logic, he now trusts the country he said couldn't be trusted to abide by a nuclear non-proliferation agreement to abide by a cease fire agreement? SMH
Like most global dramas...only time will tell. Good questions to ponder. I feel more safe, in that abstract philosophical way, living in a world where Iran did not have any nuclear capacity. One loco hombre don't need no stinkin' TACOs.
Good questions. We all know that hindsight is generally 100% accurate, but all of this was predictable (and predicted) during last year's election campaign. We can thank America's mainstream media for not asking these questions, out loud, during the campaign and for pretending the election was between two equally qualified candidates. Or for pretending that DT was anything more than a reality tv show host and con artist whose worth (and word) is less than that of a plug nickel.
So here we are. Iran has already threatened to shut down the Straits of Hormuz. This morning, it launched missiles at Qatar (possibly at the American Air Force Base there), and Qatar or the US launched missiles in retaliation. And we don't have any evidence that the bombings did what they were purported to do and that 47 is loudly proclaiming made him a hero.
I can’t help but think that all of this would have been unnecessary if Trump had left the JCPOA in place that Obama negotiated and was signed by Iran, most of Western Europe, Russia and China. But of course, he didn’t because it had Obama’s name on it. Trumps decision making is so flawed and driven by his ego and petty vengeance. And he listens only to those who tell him what he wants to her and flatter him. In this case, probably Netanyahu.
https://open.substack.com/pub/bvzcvz/p/is-the-tail-wagging-the-dog?r=30hc1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=post%20viewer
Nailed it.
The Wag the Dog bombing raid taking attention away from the many flounderings of 47 was an attempt to shed the TACO thing. HIs social media posting "MIGA Make Iran Great Again" is lost in the mess but it is also concerning. What stable genius says that?
I would add one more dread to Peter's list. Was the decision to bomb Iran a careful, thought out decision and plan? Was it one of impulse based on a desire to deflect the American public's attention from its domestic controversies and for Trump to look like a strong, decisive leader on the world stage?. The explanation given so far for this act and its related success reminds me of Bush's assertion of WMD's in Iraq. The claims of total obliteration strikes me as "fake" news, something Trump has warned all of us about. If the act was one of impulse, then can we expect more of the same when Iran retaliates?
I agree with you, Peter. The bombing was more theater in the Trump Show. I can’t imagine what it cost in dollars to use those bombs! Even though Tulsi Gabbard told Trump and others that Iran does not have weapons grade nuclear material Trump refused to believe her. She is his appointed head of intelligence but he doesn’t take her or her agency experts seriously. Why? Maybe because she is a woman and she wasn’t saying what he wanted to hear. God help us all!
Well, the bunker busters alone cost $500M each. By the time the entire cost of this operation is added up, I am guessing the total cost will be about $10B. And, Trump dropped that (no pun intended) without blinking "to defend Israel" from Iran but refuses to spend $2B to defend Ukraine from Russia.
This summer marks the 80th anniversary of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, ending Japanese opposition to ending WWII. Truman was president. I've been musing that Trump sees this air strike against Iranian nuclear capability, together with [soon] ending the war in Ukraine and [soon] helping Israel end Hamas and Hezbollah even though that project has developed into quite a slog as his path to that Nobel Peace Prize.
He will never get a Nobel Prize for anything.
As to your 1. I think there are, or were, about 15,000 centrifuges at Fordo. These are not like the 250 lb. models on casters we used in chemistry and other labs. These are much larger, hard wired, plumbed, computer driven models that couldn't be simply hauled out on a hand truck, and even if they could have been, hauling 15,000 of them away would have taken enough vehicles to show up on the satellite imagery as a real project.
And there is also the simple reality known to anyone who spent much time in the military; nothing, especially multi-unit let alone mulit-service (in this case at least Air Force and Navy) endeavors EVER goes exactly to plan. So even if the equipment had been removed, there is nothing so far that shows mission success.
As to your 6. Regime change implies something different. Where is there any indication that any organized opposing views are extant in Iran? Sure, it probably wouldn't be wise to be vocal opposition right now, but there has been much written about how the Iranian population has withdrawn from politics altogether.
I think our President, famous for bullying and bombast, has found a much more gratifying stage upon which to practice, and that he doesn't care about your points 2-5.
Trump doesn't care. It remains to be seen how much the rest of us care. Especially once Iran inevitably retaliates. How many times canl the US get fooled into war?
Trump’s approval has been underwater for months, and there’s nothing like a little shock and awe to boost the ratings. Anyway, it worked for Bush. Besides, Iran showed no interest in reviving the nuclear deal Trump walked out on years ago. So, according to Trump, their nuclear sites have now been “totally obliterated.” That’ll teach ‘em. Mission Accomplished – what could possibly go wrong? Don’t worry, be happy.
Peter, thanks.
Blinken is right:
"Trump’s Iran Strike Was a Mistake. I Hope It Succeeds."
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/opinion/trump-iran-jcpoa-biden.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Rk8.YaOM.lROiAYuBZpW5&smid=url-share
I think it's unlikely to succeed, but hope springs eternal.
In typical Trump brain rot logic, he now trusts the country he said couldn't be trusted to abide by a nuclear non-proliferation agreement to abide by a cease fire agreement? SMH
Now I know why Dems avoided taking out the Iranians. They play the "What if game" to exhaustion, paralyzing.
Like most global dramas...only time will tell. Good questions to ponder. I feel more safe, in that abstract philosophical way, living in a world where Iran did not have any nuclear capacity. One loco hombre don't need no stinkin' TACOs.