Thrill and dread
Yesterday was the moment of maximum thrill:
We did it! We solved the Iran problem! We totally demolished the Iran nuclear threat! Trump is decisive and successful!
Today America begins to feel twinges of dread. Questions start coming to mind.
Here are mine:
1. Is it possible that no one in the Iranian military thought this attack might be coming and that the Bunker Buster bombs might work? In the face of threats from Israel and Trump, was Iran so negligent that they didn't remove everything from the obvious targets?
2. Isn't it likely that these attacks will have the same effect of strengthening Iranian nationalism that the Pearl Harbor and 9-11 attacks had on the U.S., and the October 7, 2023 attack had on Israel? Might this strengthen the hand of nationalist hawks inside Iran?
3. Didn't we just solidify Iran's position as the victim of American projection of strength, and therefore strengthen Iran's connection to North Korea, China, and Russia? North Korea has nuclear bombs. Even if -- IF -- we destroyed Iran's immediate ability to build one, didn't we make it far more likely that they can and will buy a few of them from North Korea?
4. Didn't the U.S. just make clear to Iran and the world that the only way to keep a major power from attacking you is to have nuclear bombs yourself? We tolerate North Korea. We leave Pakistan and India alone to fight. They have nuclear bombs. Iran has oil to trade for bombs. Why wouldn't they immediately acquire them at nearly any price? And wouldn't every other country with friendships to China, Russia, North Korea, Pakistan, or someone else?
5. Why would we think that Iran won't retaliate asymmetrically with disruptive terror? One person with explosives hidden in a shoe has Americans taking off their shoes to board an airplane for two decades. How much cost would Americans need to endure if, from out of nowhere, two or three MAGA Republican Senators or Representatives got assassinated at one of their town halls? Or a conservative Supreme Court justice? Imagine the scope and cost of new security systems to protect some 600 people from motivated, suicidal assassins. We assassinated their leaders, and thought it a fine idea. Might they feel the same?
Or if what if a couple of shipping containers were armed to explode when they were in New York's Holland Tunnel or Boston's Ted Williams tunnel? Or if a drone dropped anthrax over a crowd of 100,000 at an Ohio State football game? There are lots of ways to spook Americans and force us to endure enormous cost and inconvenience.
6. Trump is now saying that regime change in Iran would be welcome. I agree it would be, if Iran were to move toward a peaceful, tolerant democracy. Did this bomb lead toward that good end, or away from it?
The bombing this weekend changed the story for Trump. Three days ago the story was feckless TACO-Trump, botched immigration, a Big Beautiful Bill that was floundering, tariff chaos, and Trump losing repeatedly in court including decisions by justices appointed by Republicans. Yesterday the story changed. Trump the man-of-action, Mr. Hero, ridding the world of a dangerous Iran.
That was a one day story.
Beginning today, we start to have questions about how this all plays out. Iran has survived fighting Greeks and Alexander and steppe warriors for millennia. This isn't over until Iran wants it to be over. Maybe they will want that. Did the bombing hasten that day? I question that.
Good questions. We all know that hindsight is generally 100% accurate, but all of this was predictable (and predicted) during last year's election campaign. We can thank America's mainstream media for not asking these questions, out loud, during the campaign and for pretending the election was between two equally qualified candidates. Or for pretending that DT was anything more than a reality tv show host and con artist whose worth (and word) is less than that of a plug nickel.
So here we are. Iran has already threatened to shut down the Straits of Hormuz. This morning, it launched missiles at Qatar (possibly at the American Air Force Base there), and Qatar or the US launched missiles in retaliation. And we don't have any evidence that the bombings did what they were purported to do and that 47 is loudly proclaiming made him a hero.
I can’t help but think that all of this would have been unnecessary if Trump had left the JCPOA in place that Obama negotiated and was signed by Iran, most of Western Europe, Russia and China. But of course, he didn’t because it had Obama’s name on it. Trumps decision making is so flawed and driven by his ego and petty vengeance. And he listens only to those who tell him what he wants to her and flatter him. In this case, probably Netanyahu.
https://open.substack.com/pub/bvzcvz/p/is-the-tail-wagging-the-dog?r=30hc1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=post%20viewer