Bombs drop in Iran
Trump demands "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER."
Notice that President Trump said "we." The U.S. is at war.
Trump wrote on Truth Social:
We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran. Iran had good sky trackers and other defensive equipment, and plenty of it, but it doesn’t compare to American made, conceived, and manufactured “stuff.” Nobody does it better than the good ol’ USA.
Trump is already celebrating, and why not? It's going to be easy. This is a golf "gimme." Trump is already imagining being magnanimous and merciful in victory:
We know exactly where the so-called “Supreme Leader” is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
Trump warned residents of Tehran -- a city of some nine million people -- to evacuate immediately.
Our relationship to Israel's actions in the Middle East just moved another notch closer to full partner in war, now one with a second front. The pretense is over that we are a "helper" of Israel. We are in this. The war against Palestinians isn't very popular. We see the casualties on TV and question Israel's tactics and goal. They are bombing civilians and starving children, and to what end? What plan does Israel have for Palestinians other than exile or death?
The war against Iran will be more popular with the U.S. public and the world if it is very short and if it achieves its goal, an Iran without nuclear weapons. A big if.
The events of September 11, 2001 remind us that war is not solely misery we inflict on someone else. There are a thousand ways for Iran to hit back at us, and it may happen, now or later, when we least expect it. Iran has national pride. Iran is a place that will persist. It has resilience. Iran embodies a civilization, centered around a group tied by blood, language, and culture that has occupied the place between the Caspian Sea and the Persian Gulf for 4,000 years. Their civilization survived Alexander. It survived Genghis Khan. They cannot realistically be occupied. Hostilities will never end with war; only by consent of Iran.
Diplomacy would be more effective if the U.S. had credibility as a country that dealt predictably and wisely on the world stage. Trump damaged that credibility. He breaks treaties. He switches sides. He imposed tariffs and then changed them.
Unconditional surrender is a hopeless goal, but a non-nuclear Iran is not. Iran has made trouble for its Arab neighbors for decades. The U.S. -- and Israel, even -- would not be friendless as we attempt to disarm Iran of its nuclear weapons. The world understands that Iran is dangerous.
As humans living our lives, we are in those long, long days of early summer. How pleasant. Enjoy the lives we have. But we are something else now, too. We are citizens in a country that has gone to war. Wars start amid thoughts that it might be short, a "splendid little war" as our secretary of state described the Spanish-American War. That is how they start, amid optimism and overconfidence.
Five days ago I wrote that the world had gotten more dangerous and that our future was in the hands of President Trump, a "stable genius."
Now it's even more dangerous.
A change of regime in Tehran would be laudable. As you point out, Persia has contributed mightily to the advance of civilization. The young and urban Iranians are generally smart, educated, and favor democracy and progress; they know that Britain and America thwarted the democracy and progress their parents, grandparents, and great-grandparents achieved 75 years ago: we stole their futures. So they might not fully appreciate our efforts to bomb them into submission. Bombing civilians generally hardens resolve, as has been demonstrated repeatedly, in Britain, Germany, Vietnam, France, Russia, etc. (We can all think of an exception.)
Netanyahu has actually been relatively selective in this campaign, and has gone out of his way to assure Iranians that Israel has no beef with them, only the regime and weapons. Trump, I think, does not care a bit about any lives other than his own (and Ivanka's). He'll drop those MOPs soon, I think. Regime change may be a consequence; so might a much wider war.
We could have avoided all this if Trump had not torn up the deal we had in place in Trump 1.0.
The law of unintended consequences will raise its ugly head again. 9/11 was a shock and the popular response of war in Iraq and Afghanistan (even though the suicide bombers were largely Saudi) meant economic disruption and trillions of dollars wasted. Like the Vietnam war it led to inflation and self-recrimination. Presidents like to start foreign conflicts when they want to distract the public. Wilson and México, Reagan and Grenada, H W Bush and Iraq, Clinton and the Balkans. Trump will definitely attack Iran and the ill will that generates could see Pakistan transfer an Islamic Bomb to Iran. Who needs enrichment when you have fanatical friends?