We are watching political judo, where the blow of the opponent is being turned against himself.
Alas, I am writing about the indictments of Trump.
The stronger the prosecution case, the better for Trump.
Current events are operating on two parallel tracks. One is legal. The other is political. Democrats are thrilled to see that Trump has been caught dead to rights by the legal system. Even his former Attorney General says that if the facts in the indictment are even half true, he is "toast." Some of his rivals for the nomination are beginning to get squishy about his guilt. They see the strength of the legal case.
There is a "tell" in Trump's behavior. Trump is confounding the lives of his lawyers by talking so much and so carelessly. He is essentially admitting the crime, saying that yeah, I took the classified documents, so what?
"So what?" is the tell.
Democrats had planned that the 2024 election would be a referendum on Trump, not on Biden. It won't be. The 2024 election will be about "whatabout." Whatabout Hillary, whatabout Hunter, whatabout Pence, whatabout whatever the rumored bribery business Joe Biden is alleged to have done. The "Biden crime family" story is front and center on conservative media. It does not matter what is "true" any more than the Obama birthplace in Kenya was true. The question is out there and it gives partisans an excuse to weigh and compare Biden and Trump, not just judge Trump.
"So, what?" makes the story about Trump's prosecution in the context of sloppy or accidental misuse of classified documents by others, including Hillary, Pence, Biden. It makes relevant the computers of Hunter Biden and Anthony Weiner. Trump was defiant, which is different from the others, but only Trump is indicted. Won't Republicans admit Trump did something wrong? We have our answer last night on Sean Hannity's show on Fox. Lindsay Graham sounded angry and indignant -- only at the prosecution of Trump. Trump's rivals are already talking about pardons.
The indictments make Trump stronger and more popular. I counted eight emails from Trump entities in the past 36 hours soliciting money.
Democrats who consume mainstream news are missing the full story as understood by Republican voters. Whether what Trump did was illegal or wrong or dangerous is irrelevant. The story in conservative media is that Democrats are picking on Trump.
But what if he is convicted? He could go to prison. Wouldn't that prospect be catastrophic for him? No. That prospect is a motivator -- for Republicans.
Americans aren't all that bothered by white-collar crime. It should, but it mostly does not. People who commit tax or securities fraud or election violations are not stigmatized. Trump is shameless about what he did, and enough Republicans affirm him to let Republican voters know it is OK to give Trump a pass.
I predict there won't be a trial. The wheels of justice grind slowly. There are always questions to resolve, motions to file, evidence to discover and exclude and fight over, appeals to make, then appeals of those. There are issues to resolve, including whether the judge on the case, Aileen Cannon, should recuse herself. The prosecution cannot give this case a rush-to-judgement look. Trump doesn't want a trial.
The only trial will be carried out in the November election of 2024. The public will decide the case.
Trump successfully changed the frame of the 2024 election. Previously it was going to be old-but-low-drama Biden versus high-drama erratic crazy Trump. That was a good frame for Biden, assuming he doesn't get sick or fall down or become conspicuously less capable.
Now the frame is Democratic hypocrites and unfair prosecutors versus Trump-the-victim. Trump is still a train wreck, but this frame gives Trump an excuse for being a crazy and erratic pugilist fighting for "retribution." The issue will focus back to Democrats. Are they really fair? It is an uphill fight. Americans are pre-disposed to think government might be unfair in prosecution of white-collar crimes.
The prosecution of Trump must go forward. It would have been worse for our democracy not to prosecute Trump than to prosecute, given the evidence and his flagrant flouting of the law. But it doesn't help Democrats win the 2024 election. Indeed, the opposite is the case.
I heard some discussion today about whether or not a Trump trial on espionage charges should be televised. It is a possibility that should scare Trump shitless as his former chief of staff described his current condition. Reports of his demeanor during the arraignment describe a Trump out of his element, a wary felon who may be realizing that incarceration is not out of the question. Putting cameras in the courtroom could be his undoing. Trump is addicted to the spectacle that has been his life. Put him in a courtroom where he has to play to his cult following and a well instructed jury at the same time could be some delicious theater and the ultimate demise of his improbable political prominence.
DOJ just announced pending trump trial in August.
Televise it, he's such a big tv star, why wouldn't he want it televised, as he's so proud of being a crook.
Justice delayed is justice denied. This cannot stand.