Tim Ryan is running for U.S. Senate in Ohio.
He may be the future of the Democratic Party.
He talks about jobs.
I first saw Tim Ryan in August, 2019. He was speaking in Iowa at an AFL-CIO candidates fair.
All the candidates for president were at that Des Moines convention center, most in person, a few by video: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, Eric Swalwell, Beto O'Rourke, Pete Buttigieg, Steve Bullock, Bill de Blazio, Julian Castro, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, Tim Ryan, and others I didn't photograph. Everyone got about seven minutes. It was early in the cycle. Ryan abandoned his presidential run and filed for his U.S. House seat, representing Northeast Ohio. It is anchored by the old-line manufacturing cities of Akron and Youngstown. He has been in Congress for 10 terms, 20 years. This time he is giving up that seat to run for the Senate.
If he wins, I expect him to run for president again, soon, maybe in 2024.
What I noticed at that convention was that everyone looked perfectly good and all said traditional pro-labor-union things. Democrats are comfortable with unions, especially public employee unions. There were two people who stood out: Joe Biden and Tim Ryan.
Biden appeared thoroughly genuine as an old-style union hall Democrat. He did his sentimental history schtick, with mention of Scranton, his father, the dignity of work, the shame of poverty, and the self-respect a union wage gives a man. He gave off a labor union vibe, an old Irish politician out of urban machine politics. My impression at the time was that he was a sweet old man, here for a last hurrah with the people who nurtured and funded his career. It seemed obvious: Biden was the past, Bernie or someone like him is the present, the Squad will be the future.
The other person outside the Democratic mold was Tim Ryan. He sounded like the head of the AFL-CIO who had given the conference's opening introductory remarks: Plain talk, blue collar, bread and butter. Ryan has a law degree but he doesn't sound like it. Ryan was 46 then, 49 now. I preferred the fluent eloquence Pete Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren. They understood the economy, the country, the world and put a complicated narrative together. They could do what Bill Clinton and Barrack Obama could do. I understood my preference to be a caution light, not a green one. Democrats were losing working people for a reason. Ryan sounded plodding and narrow, to my ear. He didn't talk about the world. He talked about jobs. Empty factories. Ending bad trade deals. Protecting paychecks. He said "paychecks" a lot. I recognized that word sounded pretty sweet to nearly everyone--especially the blue collar voters Democrats were losing.
Hell with Democrats talking about the $15/hour minimum wage, he said. Ryan said he wanted jobs for American workers that paid $50/hour, maybe $75 an hour. Activist Democrats had moved left, pulled there by Bernie, and they were talking about poverty and corporate power. End the worst of poverty with a $15/hour minimum wage, and add Medicare for all, eliminate student debt, and free college. That was the message. Ryan broke that mold. He spoke in favor of government policy to change the economy and restore a middle class--a prosperous middle class--by protecting and empowering American businesses and workers. Great jobs are how we fix poverty in America, he said.
Sanders had a 1960's radical, U. of Chicago vibe. Corporations were screwing the working class. Ryan talked about factories, not class. I didn't hear him say he wanted to smash corporations. He wanted them to be protected and taxed. He wanted workers, thanks to collective bargaining, to squeeze a bigger share of the pie out of them.
If Ryan cannot win in Ohio next week, he probably will have failed his "proof of concept." Ohio went for Trump by 8%, so it is a tough challenge. If he loses, a consensus will grow that he or the message isn't right. Democrats leaders fear him. Ryan does not sound like the opinion leaders for Democrats. He sounds like the voters Democrats are losing.
Next Tuesday is a time to prove up. What kind of person is the future of the Democrat Party? If Tina Kotek loses in Oregon, and Tim Ryan wins in Ohio, the Democratic Party may decide to recalibrate.
Here is how Ryan sounds in a debate organized by Fox News.
Here is a 30 second ad:
He is a real person and we need to clone him to fill the senate