Whipsaw.
Tale of two Bidens:
It was the best of times. It was the worst of times.
Things are looking up for Joe Biden. Things are falling apart for him.
The good news: Gasoline prices are down. Worker participation is up. Unemployment is low. Rents are declining. Inflation is abating. Trump faces indictments on multiple counts, and there is the slam-dunk case of Trump having taken government documents and stored them insecurely. He has admitted it!
The bad news: Biden, too, had old documents at home, apparently out of carelessness, not intention. But still. Worse, Hunter Biden had access to those documents, which pulls him back into the Joe Biden story. Worse yet, Mr. Fair-Minded-Bend-Over-Backwards AG Merrick Garland picks a former Trump-appointed U.S. attorney, a member of the Federalist Society, to be the special prosecutor to investigate Biden's documents.
The past six months had looked good for Joe Biden. Biden looked competent and effective--something of a surprise to many. Inflation was a problem, and responsible people at the Fed are doing something about it, with the blessing of the executive branch. How refreshingly sensible. The gridlocked and dysfunctional Congress got something done addressing climate, the "Inflation Reduction Act." Congress passed the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Both were passed over Republican opposition and messaging. Republicans have a narrative: If Democrats did it, by definition it is wasteful and socialist. The message has limited credibility. Most people have a recollection that when Trump was president Republicans supported the deficit double-whammy of big spending and tax cuts. Biden got agreement from Joe Manchin. How crazy-liberal could it be if Joe Manchin approved it? Republican partisans will be unpersuaded, but there is a vast middle in America’s electorate--the margin of victory in close districts and states--who are pleasantly surprised. Somehow the grownups in D.C. got things done.
On top of that Democrats made a careful gesture on the culture wars, a law requiring states to recognize same-sex marriages performed in other states. Public opinion has moved on the issue of same-sex marriage. (Live and let live. Love who you want.) Republicans are choosing to be the meddling scolds.
The Biden career arc improved. He wasn't an over-the-hill placeholder. He was a get-thing-done leader. Biden was going to run for re-election.
Now this. Biden had documents. Of course, he immediately turned them over. It was a matter of neglect, not intention, but that doesn't change the political effect. Biden isn't a scofflaw. That is Trump's brand. Biden is the guy who messes up by bumbling. Biden dug his hole deeper by saying the documents were locked along with his Corvette. The most pathetic image in the world is the self-delusion of an 80-year-old man with aviator glasses driving a Corvette.
Biden's stored documents muddle the political case against Trump. It now hinges on a distinction of intent, not national security. In the law the matter may be significant. Politically, it is a nit-pick. Hunter Biden is back in the middle of the story of Joe Biden. What did Hunter Biden see and when did he see it?
I wish two things would happen. The first is that Biden appoint a special prosecutor to investigate both his own children and Trump's. Clean the stable. It won’t happen but it should. Make a bold body-language gesture of draining the swamp. Of course, Hunter peddled influence, as did Jared, Ivanka, Eric, and Don Junior. The influence peddling might simply be ugly and corrupt, but legal. If so, clear their names of illegality. If they did illegal acts, prosecute them. Trump pardons corrupt people. Democrats should prosecute them.
The second is for Biden to announce, like LBJ in 1968, that he is not running for re-election so that he can devote his time and energy to addressing America's problems. A week ago, I thought this was unlikely. Now Joe Biden has a real reason. Hunter is fragile at best. Joe needs to take Hunter out of the line of direct fire. This might happen, and should.