What is President Trump afraid of?
Pundits search for metaphors:
A mad king
A bull in a china shop
A willful spoiled child
What, if anything, are constraints on President Trump in this second term?
The Constitution isn't a constraint. The Constitution design presumed that ambition would check ambition. Power was divided. Of course the House would want to preserve its power of the purse and control spending. Of course the Senate would advise and consent on nominations. Of course congress would impeach and convict a president who blatantly lied about an election defeat and attempted to stay in office by sending a mob to break into the Capitol. No. Partisan loyalty is a stronger motivator than are congressional prerogatives.
The judiciary isn't a constraint. The Supreme Court fears Trump will simply openly defy them, so it wants desperately to avoid a showdown. Trump is an existential threat to the power of the courts. Once Trump defies them and gets away with it -- and he would -- the courts are never again a co-equal branch of government. Trump can invent some pretense -- obvious in its dishonesty -- to pretend he is acting within Constitutional order, when he is not. He claims he has no influence whatever with El Salvador.
There are, in fact, constraints on Trump. The bond market scares Trump. What Trump called "the yips" was an extraordinary move almost invisible to the general public, a move of two indexes that have moved in the same direction only twice in this century. Once was immediately after the 9/11 attack, and the other was just after the Lehman bankruptcy that triggered the Great Financial Crisis. Treasury bond yields went up sharply while at the same time the dollar fell sharply against other currencies. The two moves, happening together, threatened a reiteration of the Long Term Capital Management hedge fund collapse in 1998.
[Hedge funds make money using enormous leverage. They capture tiny price discrepancies which then resolve into equilibrium. They can be highly leveraged because they balance one position against another. Hedge funds relied on the idea that the U.S. was the move-to-safety trade, but then, briefly amid Trump's tariff talk, it wasn't. The counterweights moved together, putting hedge funds at risk. The price moves portended a dangerous short term crisis. It also portended a grim, expensive future for the U.S. as financing our debt at higher rates.]
Trump cares about the stock market. He treats it like an applause-meter at a rally. It plunged on talk of tariffs -- jeers! -- and it gyrates up on hints that he is just bluffing -- cheers! Trump's talk of firing the Fed chairman caused a stock market drop. Trump said he wouldn't fire him and the stock market rebounded.
Trump fears Putin and Russia. There is something unknown transpiring behind the scenes in our relationship with Russia. Maybe Trump's real estate purchases and sales helped Russia launder money and someone holds proof of criminal acts, although I suspect Trump could talk and pardon his way out of trouble. Russia helped Trump get elected in 2016, as acknowledged by a Republican-led senate investigation, but Trump is adamant that any suggestion of Russia's help is a "hoax." It is a sensitive spot.
But maybe there is no dark secret. Maybe Trump just rationally and openly admires Putin's ability to rule a multi-ethnic polity for the benefit of its White Christian majority. Maybe he considers Russia the legitimate controller of a pan-Slavic people, which includes Ukraine, Belarus, and Poland, and Russia should be free to consolidate them without interference from others. For whatever reason, Trump doesn't want to confront Russia.
Trump is acting toward Russia the way the Supreme Court is acting toward Trump: don't confront.
Trump doesn't fear losing his GOP majority. He knows he can persuade a majority of GOP voters to follow him anywhere. Where GOP voters go, GOP representatives and senators go. If we go into recession Trump's support will drop, but Trump will turn on the salesmanship. Blame Biden. Blame Obama. Blame the Fed. Blame the Chinese. Blame criminals. Blame immigrants. Trump will survive minor economic distress.
Trump is becoming the most consequential president of my lifetime, and not in a good way. I suspect that the only thing that will stop Trump is if he deeply injures the American economy. A financial crisis of the kind we experienced in 2008- 2011 would do it. Even Indiana voted for Obama in 2008. It takes a disaster so profound that even a master salesman cannot sell his way out of trouble. Trump fears a disaster of that scale.
Trump and company call to mind those lines from the Indigo Girls' song, Closer to Fine:
"Well, darkness has a hunger that's insatiable/
And lightness has a call that's hard to hear."
Trump is very dark, indeed, and his hunger for power, wealth, and adulation are insatiable. Thus far, the forces of goodness and light have been all too hard to hear. I believe that is changing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1HWV5hq4Bh8
Six days ago, those of us who lived in or around New York City "celebrated" the 36th anniversary of a travesty. On April 19, 1989, a young woman named Trisha Meili was assaulted and raped in Central Park. What was known as the Central Park Jogger case quickly became known as the Central Park Five case, as five teenagers were arrested and promptly convicted. Black and brown, these five were coerced into confessions and served sentences ranging from seven to thirteen years. More than a decade after the attack, a serial rapist named Matias Reyes confessed to the rape/assault (along with five other women) and said he was the only participant. DNA confirmed his guilt and exonerated all six of the teens. At the time of their arrest, Donald Trump took out full-page ads in New York newspapers demanding their execution. He continued to call for their execution even after the charges were vacated in July 2022. During both his 2016 and 2024 campaigns, Trump called for their re-arrest and conviction. Like a dog with a bone, Trump will never let go of his conviction about someone or something. Like the proverbial elephant, he never forgets a slight, and these law firms are lucky he hasn't called for executions. Madame DeFarge, are you listening?