"If you're gonna play the game, boy
You gotta learn to play it right
You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away."Don Schlitz, "The Gambler," a song made popular by Kenny Rogers
A reader asked:
"Peter, why did Republicans vote to get rid of the lying con man George Santos, while they stick with Donald Trump, who is even worse?"
Short answer: The sunk cost fallacy.
There were strong reasons for Republicans to keep George Santos in the House of Representatives. He was a reliable Republican vote and the party desperately needs reliable votes. Losing Santos makes a thin majority even thinner. Santos set a terrible example, yes, but no one conflated Santos with his Republican colleagues because Santos was one of a kind. He got on TV, but no one thought he was a spokesperson for the party or represented its policies, not in the way that provocateurs like Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Greene, or Lauren Boebert do. They could have kept him, and said that he was the choice of the people of his District.
But Republican officeholders exercised a mix of reason and principle. Santos was caught dead to rights being flagrantly dishonest and unethical. They considered him unworthy of the office of U.S. Representative, so they expelled him.
But Republican officeholders cling to Trump, who held and wants to hold again an even higher office. Trump gets GOP officeholders in political trouble. He is center stage. He represents the GOP, and some of what he says is dangerously unpopular. Trump himself is personally unpopular to a majority of voters. He says outrageous, newsworthy things. He makes ALL CAP rants condemning COMMUNISTS AND TURNCOAT REPUBLICANS!!! He is intemperate in his accusations of bias and fraud in the courts, the FBI, the justice system, and the military. He divides the party by calling long-time party members RINOs. He condemns people that voters and officeholders have a long record of supporting, including senior Republicans and all the party's former presidential nominees. He is under indictment for actions he doesn't deny doing.
There are many reasons for Republicans to have ditched Trump -- but they haven't.
Maybe we shouldn't overthink this. Sometimes the simple answer is the right one. My 30-year experience as a Financial Advisor offers an explanation, and it is far less complicated than the myriad psychological, sociological, demographic theories that circulate. It's the sunk cost fallacy.
I saw this repeatedly. Clients willingly sell their winners. It feels good to do it because selling a profitable investment proves the wisdom of their prior decision to buy. The same client will refuse to sell a loser, even when the prospects for the company continue to deteriorate. Having at one point openly supported Trump -- usually going back to the 2016 election, including after the Access Hollywood revelation -- Republican politicians made an internal decision and public statement that Donald Trump was their guy. They bought the Trump "stock." Now changing one's mind means that whatever credibility they put on the line vouching for Trump would be lost, and indeed reversed. Moreover, it means admitting a mistake to oneself.
People hate losses. They hope to put them off, thereby digging their hole deeper, sacrificing better opportunities. They aren't stuck. They make themselves stuck. They filter out inconvenient information. They dig in.
No one in the GOP politics knew much about George Santos, which is what allowed him to get elected with an extravagant, fabricated resume. Fellow GOP House members never "bought" the Santos stock. With Santos, people could be rational and consistent with their values. With Trump, it's in for a penny, in for a pound.
People correctly accuse this blog of overthinking and over-analyzing little things. I expect to continue doing exactly that. This blog is trying to understand this extraordinary political era. Biden is the president but the era is all about the reaction and triangulation around the great force-field of Trump and his hold on about half of my fellow Americans. All the data and investment research and visible evidence of a stock continuing to sink would frequently hit a brick wall with investors, just as does information about Trump's bad behavior. Republicans have alternatives but they are sticking with the proven loser. It isn't about data. It is about admitting to oneself that the investment is a mistake.
People hate to do that.
As good an explanation as I've heard.
I think you are only partly correct. My associations are largely with people who are said to be the core Trump supporter; they are middle age and older, not college educated, thought to be politically ignored males. They wouldn't know the difference between a sunk cost and a sunken boat. They LOVE that Mr. Trump disdains people in authority. They think his lies are no worse than the lies of those they hate. They really think he has their interests at heart. He is their man