Trump is back. He never left.
Trump got one big thing right.
Timing.
Pundits are piling onto Trump and his announcement speech.
He rambled. Yes.
His extravagant lies. Yes.
His went on too long. Yes.
He rehashed old complaints. Yes.
It was low energy. Yes.
It was tiresome. Yes.
Trump: Everything was wonderful when I was president. Everything is terrible now. Biden is senile. Foreigners laugh at America. When I was president foreigners respected us. Everyone was happy and prosperous when I was president. People are miserable now. I unified America and people loved me. Now we are divided. I was strong. America was strong. America was safe. America was glorious. America was great.
The audience got bored with it and tried to leave. Even Fox News cut away from the speech after 35 minutes to tell us what he had said even as he kept talking and talking. Fox's loyalties are switching. This morning the Fox News webpage did not open to Trump. An article on Trump is well down the page. It opened to this. Fox could not be more obvious. Fox praises Trump extravagantly, but they have moved on.
A Republican--maybe not Trump--has a great shot at winning in 2024. Amid all the tiresome crazy of his speech, Trump said one true thing:
"The citizens of our country have not yet realized the full extent and gravity of the pain our nation is going through and the total effect of the suffering is just starting to take hold. They don't quite feel it yet, but they will very soon. I have no doubt that by 2024 it will sadly be much worse and they will see much more clearly what happened and what is happening to our country, and the voting will be much different. 2024."
I, too, predict a painful 2024. The Fed is giving the U.S. economy the strong chemotherapy it thinks we need to cure inflation. It injures the patient to cure them. Raise interest rates enough and people get poorer, unemployment rises, overall demand is lower, businesses slow down. Central banks cure inflation by creating a recession.
The economy is still strong--so strong that unemployment is officially 3.5%. This is, in effect, zero, since there is always some churn from people moving, starting or stopping school, or seeking something new. The Fed cannot push this economy into recession with a weak dose interest rate chemo. It is doing "whatever it takes." We are getting set up for a dramatic slowdown in 2023 and 2024.
Democrats have time to adjust their message, but it may not matter. "It's the economy, stupid." The economy itself. It is not the message about the economy. No president or presidential party can talk their way out of a serious recession.
It is a bad break for Democrats, but all is not lost. The one thing that can save "bad" is "worse." This is how Biden won in 2020. A Republican majority in the House has endless ways to seize defeat. Possibly the House will go ahead with its threat to freeze on the debt ceiling and create a panic or debt default. Possibly they will pass extreme abortion bills. Possibly they will undermine the defense of Ukraine with spending freezes.
Their most likely, and most popular, error will be to go on an impeachment frenzy. I expect it. GOP voters may demand it. Trump rally crowds chant it now. Impeach Biden. Impeach Fauci. Impeach Garland. There is still a lot of Trump-ism in the GOP. Republicans risk hardening their brand as disrupters. Trump is a burn it down candidate. He and his supporters spread that brand to the GOP. It will change the election frame from Democrats-as-incompetent into Republicans-as-agents-of- chaos.
I think Trump's prediction of a grim 2024 is likely. What is not clear yet is which party will get the blame.