Trump asks too much of GOP candidates.
"Peter, you need to stop writing about Trump. Trump is out. We Republicans have moved on."
Comment from a former Republican officeholder
If only they could.
Trump is on-message. He insists he won in a landslide in 2020. GOP voters believe him. Candidates need to go along. Or else.
The Republican National Committee is meeting in Salt Lake City. They are wrestling with a resolution to condemn Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger. Some want them declared not-Republicans. Others want them censored. There is a group that allegedly wants to "water down" the resolution lest the GOP appear too slavish to Trump. They insist to NBC reporters that their comments be unattributed. NBC wrote "they are loath to antagonize Trump and possibly drive off his hard-core followers." Even finesse is dangerous.
Republican candidates have a problem. Trump polarizes, and when Trump is in full glory he is indefensible--except to the GOP primary electorate. Some candidates try nuance. Be Trump-adjacent but not Trump-compliant. We saw it with the Oregon GOP candidates for governor.
Trump keeps himself center stage by being outrageous. He wrote yesterday:
Why isn't the corrupt Unselect Committee of political hacks and highly partisan sleazebags in Washington investigating the massive voter fraud and irregularities that took place in the 2020 President Election, rather than spending all of its time investigating those who were protesting its result?"
This is on top of a week when he suggested he would probably pardon Capitol rioters if elected again. He put in print that he wanted Vice President Michael Pence to "overthrow the election." He called for the investigation and prosecution of both Nancy Pelosi and Pence. He called Lindsay Graham a RINO. He continues his public condemnation of "stupid," "loser," "Old Broken Crow" Mitch McConnell.
It is hard to find finesse and middle ground with that. Republican candidates fear sounding weak or skeptical of Trump, and doubly fear outright contradiction of him. Take 30-seconds to watch this advertisement from David Perdue's campaign. He is in a contested primary against Brian Kemp for Georgia governor:
Trump is seen saying:
The Democrats walked all over Brian Kemp. He was afraid of Stacey 'the hoax' Abrams. Brian Kemp let us down. We can't let it happen again. David Perdue is an outstanding man. He's tough. He's smart. He has my complete and total endorsement. Vote for David Perdue.
Kemp is stuck. He certified Biden's election victory. He did his duty and made Trump an enemy. That is baked in for him. Like Pence, he didn't overthrow an election.
Most Republican candidates have more wiggle room. If Trump took off the pressure they could say they have doubts, that there were troubling irregularities, that they are focused on election security in the future. They could appear Trump-compliant but independent. One tack is to say they defer to the doubts of others. Nevada gubernatorial candidate Dean Heller had said in the fall that he knew who the president was, while refusing to say Biden's name aloud. That was not good enough. He has since met with Trump in Florida and hardened his position, saying the 2020 election was stolen from Trump and that Biden is an illegitimate president. He said his evidence is that 71% of Nevada Republicans believe that, and he is with them.
One of the two great political parties in America is stuck in a feedback loop. Trump won't let go and therefore his base of support won't let go. Trump is getting less cautious. He is openly and proudly admitting to crimes. He is openly coaching witnesses by dangling pardons. As Trump becomes more extreme, the heavier burden he becomes to Republican candidates in a general election.
You are with him or against him. There is no finessing that. Trump demands too much.