Trump 2024
Democrats are poised to lose the White House in 2024.
Unless Trump.
"Too many Republicans embrace Donald Trump’s narcissistic fantasy of a stolen election. . .. To appreciate how self-defeating this is, consider that Trump’s best shot at winning in 2024 would be to drop his focus on 2020 and continuously assail President Biden’s underwhelming performance in the White House and the overreach of congressional Democrats. Trump has a strong record to run on, and Biden is proving an easy act to follow. The fact that not just he but millions of his supporters are incapable of recognizing this obvious truth shows how polluted our politics have become by the pathologies of victimhood, grievance and division."
CLICK: J. Peder Zane, Real Clear Politics
President Joe Biden cannot corral Democrats into a governing coalition. He never had the skillset for the job, even when he was younger, and certainly not now. He cannot articulate a national purpose or policy agenda for Americans, or even for Democrats. We knew his limitations. Some people probably were comforted by seeing them. He was harmless.
Biden did not create a movement. Trump did. MAGA die-hards, including Trump himself, who say that there is no possible way that 83 million people wanted this feeble stuttering guy who broadcast from a Delaware basement. They are partly right. The 83 million votes wanted Trump out.
Today's economy is so good it is overheating. People have money to spend. Home prices are up; stock prices are up; car prices are up; unemployment is under 4%; and employees are so confident they are quitting jobs if they feel restless or unappreciated. There are “Help Wanted” signs everywhere. COVID is a downer, but even conservatives see the pattern. The Trump-supporting unvaccinated are filling up hospitals and morgues. The vaccinated and boosted stay alive. It does not get any better than that for a message.
Biden can talk of progress and success but no one hears him or cares. People think the country is on the wrong track. Democrats need to remember what they knew when they watched JFK in 1960, Clinton in 1992, and Obama in 2008. Charisma matters. Star quality matters. Trump is a tabloid professional wrestling stock-character "heel," the angry antagonist. The bad guy, The rule breaker. Trump, like successful professional wrestling heels, established a vivid character people simultaneously admire and hate. Trump caught the moment and attracted an audience.
Democrats need to acknowledge the reality that Donald Trump is a star who can persuade. A lot of people like what he says and they even like the pugnacious way he says it. He is fearless. The world is changing toward something more cosmopolitan, diverse, and post-industrial. Or post-post-industrial, a world of Artificial Intelligence. Trump created a political MAGA world of resistance to all that. He is its leader. There is no opposite and equivalent Democratic political world.
Democrats painted themselves into a political corner. Kamala Harris is badly positioned. Even if Biden leaves office early she would be tainted. She would be an inheritor, not a founder. In 2024 Democrats will be led by Biden, by Harris, or by some newcomer whose elevation would come at the expense of a Black woman-in-waiting Vice President. It is a weak hand.
It can only beat a weaker one. Trump needs to be the issue, and fortunately for Democrats, he is stepping up. It was very Trump-like to claim to be cheated and to lay a foundation of doubt and conspiracy. It worked with birtherism. Voters enjoy thinking ill of politicians they disagree with. Trump is a master at turning disagreement into detest.
Trump's error is that he cannot let go of the Big Lie. We like "good guy" rogues who take on illegitimate authority, but not crazy ones. Trump's monomania is the GOP's giant vulnerability. He enforces message discipline among Republicans. You are with him or a RINO enemy he will squash. In 2022 Republican candidates in swing states and districts will hedge and muddle. We saw it in Virginia. It works politically. However, if Trump is the 2024 nominee, he is stuck being the human he is, and so is the GOP. He doubled down on his character and his grievance. He really thinks he won. He isn't shutting up. He looks crazy. Democrats should rejoice.
Trump is the one person Democrats can beat in 2024.