"Oh, yes we got trouble, trouble, trouble
Oh yes we got trouble here, we got big, big trouble."
Meredith Wilson, The Music Man, 1957
Introducing Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., an Independent candidate for President. He spells trouble.
But for whom?
RFK, Jr. has a big storefront campaign office just off the main downtown street in Manchester, New Hampshire. Five staff members greeted me, had me stand in front of the giant photo of RFK, Jr., and then assured me that their candidate was misunderstood. He isn't a crazy conspiracy theory guy, they said. He is vaccinated. His children are vaccinated. RFK, Jr. recognizes that mercury in vaccines is the real problem, they said. Dentists and tuna eaters and everyone knows about mercury. He is totally normal, an environmental lawyer, a good guy liberal, they said. He supports taxing the rich and raising the minimum wage. I told them I usually voted for Democrats. So do we, they said.
The crew had just finished a long day coordinating volunteers to do signature gathering. The problem for an Independent candidate is getting one's name on state ballots. Every state has different rules, different timetables. To get on the ballot in California requires 200,000 signatures. To get on it in Tennessee requires only 275 signatures. His campaign communication director says he has a "robust ballot-access team" and will be on the ballot in every state.
RFK, Jr. explains his ballot access progress in this 90-second video. It gives viewers a chance to see and hear him.
RFK, Jr. sounds raspy and hoarse. He has been diagnosed with Spasmodic Dysphonia. Spasmodic dysphonia is a chronic neurological voice disorder. A dysphonia website explains that it "it results in involuntary spasms of the muscles that open or close the vocal folds, causing a voice that presents with breaks and strained/strangled quality or breathy quality." It makes it harder for him to communicate emphasis, since it causes his voice to freeze up.
RFK, Jr. is a serious candidate because his name gives him a brand, his environmental politics and Covid views give him a political home among some activists and donors. He can raise money. He cites his fundraising momentum in the video. RFK, Jr. has a super-PAC. It has been getting money from donors who have given in the past to both Democrats and Republicans. One donor, Tim Mellon, who normally donates to Republicans, gave $5 million.
Consumers of mainstream and liberal media repeatedly hear RFK, Jr. introduced and framed as a crackpot. He considers Covid vaccination shots more dangerous than the disease. (I happily choose to be vaccinated and boosted.) That issue became a defining issue for Democrats, but the issue is now fading into the rear view mirror. I observe many Democrats who had eagerly sought the vaccine when it was first available but now are casual and negligent about staying up to date with boosters. The issue may not continue to define RFK, Jr.
He has a heterodox set of views. Policy-compliant partisans will find things to dislike, indeed deal-killers. Others will like that he broke free of partisan dogma. He is neither left nor right. He is a scrambled mix. Examples:
Abortion. Right to abortion, yes, until three months. Then ban.
Guns. No more restrictions on purchases.
Same sex marriage. OK.
Require masks on public transportation. No, masks don't work.
Raise taxes on rich. Yes.
Raise minimum wage. Yes.
Support Israel. Yes.
Support Ukraine. No.
Photo ID to vote. Yes.
Racial sensitivity training. No.
Refuse service to people on religious grounds. Yes
Biden's student loan forgiveness. Support.
Police body cameras. Require them.
Fund Planned Parenthood. Yes.
Allow health insurers to deny coverage for pre-existing conditions. Yes, because it is expensive for them.
Require vaccinations of children for preventable diseases. No.
Ban Muslim immigrants. No.
Decriminalize drug use. Yes.
As readers will see, there is something to like, something to dislike.
Click here to see more of these short direct answers from the RFK, Jr. campaign. This is unique in campaigns. Standard practice is to avoid direct answers except on unavoidable litmus-test issues. People who value no-nonsense directness will like this.
RFK, Jr. will not win any states, but he might swing the election in key battleground states. On policy grounds, it is not clear to me whether Biden or Trump is most at risk of losing votes to him. RFK, Jr.'s brand is "Democratic" and on economic grounds he sounds like one. But on Covid, guns, religion, maybe-abortion, and Ukraine, he sounds like a Republican. If voters want a shake-things-up candidate, but cannot stomach Trump, then RFK, Jr. might be an alternative way to cast a vote for change.
As his own family says, "Don't vote for him". Why is he being interviewed on right wing "news" sites? Why does he have such a large amount of supporters in the gop? Because he's more republican than democrat. Shame on him & Jill...the presidential election spoilers.