TikTok election in Guatemala
Translation: “What did he say? The unexpected message he sent to Taylor Swift.”
Answer: He wished her "Happy Birthday."
The politics and problems within Guatemala seem far away, what with all the news about Israel, Hamas, Ukraine, Trump, Giuliani, Jack Smith, Biden polls, inflation, the stock market, and worries over whether social media is destroying our democracy and the minds of our children.
Add to that the burning question of whether that tight end playing for the Kansas City Chiefs will end up proposing to Taylor Swift.
The USA has been meddling in the politics of Central America for two centuries. Americans make derisive comments about "banana republics," ignorant of or unbothered by the fact that the instability of governments like the one in Guatemala is partly a consequence of U.S. policy, both open and covert. Today's Guest Post describes yet another iteration of foreign involvement in the region, this time by Taylor Swift's influence on social media. Jack Mullen is a friend from my youth. We thinned and picked pears together in Southern Oregon orchards. He entered the Peace Corps after college and served in Guatemala.
Guest Post by Jack Mullen
Events like 9/11 and the Israeli-Hamas conflict dominate the news cycle to the detriment of important world happenings. Prime example: the war in Ukraine is now a back page story. At least most Americans are aware of the situation in Ukraine. Not so for the Trumpian election interference happening now in Guatemala.
Ever since the United States fomented a coup in 1954 that overthrew the democratically elected government of Jacob Arbenz, Guatemala has been at the mercy of a small group of oligarchs, shady politicians, and a corrupt military.
Two-thirds of Guatemala’s 17 million citizens are under the age of 30. Their smart phones are tuned into TikTok. Only one of the 22 candidates in the last June’s primary elections intuitively grasped TikTok’s possible relevance in a political campaign. That politician was a 65-year-old anti-corruption congressman, Bernardo Arevalo. He rode TikTok to a surprising second place finish in Guatemala’s June 24 primary, which qualified him to run against the primary’s winner, Sandra Torres, in the August 24 national election. Arevalo won by a gigantic 61-39 landslide.
How did “Uncle Bernie,” as he is known, pull it off?
In April, Bernardo Arevalo made a TikTok video expressing admiration for Taylor Swift. The video went viral. That in itself got brought him 12% of the June 24 vote, which qualified him to run against Ms. Torres. Arevalo’s campaign manager, the 31-year-old Semilla (seed in Spanish) party leader, Samuel Perez, along with 23-year-old singer-dancer Marcela Blanco, formed a David Plouff-David Axelrod Obama-style campaign team that understood Gen Z’s mode of communication.
The Swifties of Guatemala passed along videos of the striking Marcela Blanco dancing with voters. Word got out that politics is not just for old people.
The old guard of Guatemala, in an attempt to annul Arevalo’s election victory, is claiming “election fraud.” Guatemalan prosecutors have seized boxes of voter tallies. They tried to dissolve the Semilla political party, and have started raiding homes, arresting Semilla party leaders, including, two weeks ago, Marcela Blanco. Two of the five members of the non-partisan Guatemalan Election Commission, fearing arrest, last week flew to Miami.
The young voters of Guatemala are taking to the streets, along with many of Guatemala’s long overlooked indigenous people and their leaders. They are demanding that Arevalo be allowed to take office.
Bernardo Arevalo happens to be the son of Juan Arevalo, the first democratically elected president in Guatemala back in 1945. Bernardo’s father was an admirer of Franklin Roosevelt, as was his successor, Jacob Arbenz. Arbenz’ battle with United Fruit raised a ruckus in the U.S. State Department. The Dulles brothers, John Foster at State, and his brother Allen at the CIA, sanctioned a CIA overthrow of Arbenz and installed a tin-pot dictator to rule the country.
There are no simple solutions to the U.S. border problems. A step in the right direction to stem the tide of Guatemalans trekking to the U.S. would be to allow the democratically-elected Bernardo Arevalo to take office on January 24, 2024.
Taylor Swift is playing a huge role in Guatemala. Perhaps her upbeat and confident personae with its approving glance at Joe Biden, might play a large role in the 2024 U.S. elections. It worked in Guatemala.