Three-way race for Oregon governor
A Democrat, a Republican, and an Independent.
Oregonians are figuring out how their election for governor will shake out.
There are reliable party-line voters. There are ideological voters. There are strategic voters. There are uninterested voters. There are confused voters.
Where will they land?
I consider Democratic nominee Tina Kotek to be a liberal/progressive in the mold of Elizabeth Warren. Kotek emphasizes her effectiveness in pushing through forward-thinking blue state policies in her role as Speaker of the Oregon House.
I consider Christine Drazan to be a generic Republican. She was the Minority Leader in the Oregon House. She says she wants to move on from Trump, and that Biden won the 2020 election. She is anti-abortion. I suspect she is generally acceptable to most GOP voters.
The third candidate is Betsy Johnson, an Independent. She is hard to categorize. That is what makes this race complicated.
I have asked other political observers to share their perspective on these candidates. The first person to take me up on that is Curt Ankerberg, a frequent candidate for Medford-area offices. He has a very controversial history with this blog and with others in this community, but his observations are a useful perspective. He is a voice of Trump-supporting conservative Republicans.
Comment by Curt Ankerberg
Tina Kotek is a full-strength democrat. She covers the progressive bases on every issue. You can't get more left than Tina Kotek.
Betsy Johnson is a democrat-light. She's like the dietary drink that's missing some of the main ingredients.
If you're a full-fledged democrat, then you'd probably want the real-deal full-strength candidate, with all the bells and whistles, and not the imitation, light candidate. As such, then you'd probably support Tina Kotek, and not Betsy Johnson.
Betsy Johnson is not going to appeal to the hard-core progressive democrats. They already have Tina Kotek. People who are unhappy with the democrat party, or unaffiliated voters, will gravitate to Betsy Johnson. People who are mad at the system (which Tina Kotek represents) will gravitate to Betsy Johnson. Betsy Johnson is the "protest vote".
When Betsy Johnson speaks with republican voters (like on the Bill Meyer Show) [an AM radio talk show with populist,Trump-y, downmarket appeal], then she talks about supporting guns and timber harvesting. Both are issues supported by conservatives. She panders to republicans.
When Betsy speaks with democrats (like at the Common Block Brewery) [the event this blog described two days ago], then she talks about the homeless and disadvantaged children. Both are emotional issues which tug at democrats' hearts. She doesn't discuss guns or timber harvesting. Betsy is pandering to her audience. They are only getting half a picture of who she really is. When she's with republicans, then she's a different woman, like Jekyl and Hyde.
Betsy Johnson has been around a long time, and she knows how to play the game. She knows how to pander to different audiences, so that you never know who you are getting with Betsy. She used to be a hard-core gun supporter (who brags about owning a machine gun), but now she is waffling on guns, and she might support some gun restrictions. That's the danger you get with someone who attempts to straddle the fence, and play both sides. You don't know what you are getting with them. You know what you are getting with Tina Kotek, whether you like her or not. For the record, you don't know what you are getting with Christine Drazan, either. Drazan is a wild-card.
Betsy Johnson is attempting to portray herself as a "Maverick", like John McCain. She's an outsider out to fight the establishment, but she is the establishment. Betsy served in the Oregon House of Representatives as a democrat from 2001 to 2005, and in the Oregon Senate from 2005 to 2021. That's 20 years, which is a long time.
I see some disillusioned democrat and republican voters, plus some unaffiliated voters voting for Betsy Johnson, but it won't be enough to win. Most voters will stick to their party-lines, which will leave Betsy Johnson as a non-winner in November.