". . . the center cannot hold
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world."
Y. B. Yeats, "The Second Coming"
These words and this poem are favorites among writers who think we face doom.
Much of left-oriented punditry fears something horrible on the near horizon. In a movie it would be sound-scripted with ominous music. It might be shot dark so something could suddenly spring from deep shadows. In the typical movie trope, the protagonists are blithely unaware.
That is the movie we are in right now.
Most left-oriented commentators consider Biden the inevitable choice. They are a mixture of resigned and nervously optimistic. He's our man, and that's OK. The economy is strong. The stock market is up. Unemployment is down. Trump is indicted and acting wilder and more manic. Ten and possibly 20 percent of Republican voters won't vote for him. That means Biden will win.
Amidst the peril, maybe the movie has a good ending.
Meanwhile, there is another version of Democratic hope. This is the Dues ex machina one. Or the "Beam me up, Scotty" one. Or the sudden appearance of the cavalry. Fiction is full of devices like these.
Ezra Klein's op-ed in The New York Times is the most recent iteration. He says that an event of some kind will cause Biden to abandon his re-election plan. LBJ did so in March of 1968, so there is still time. Maybe Jill Biden will say something. Maybe Biden will have a health event. In Klein's imagined movie, Democrats will have a convention, and instead of a coronation it will be old-school sausage-making. Out of it will come a new face, someone broadly acceptable to Democrats and to the nation. No one could possibly be as flawed a candidate as Trump. The person will have been chosen by political professionals and activists, and there are eight or 10 senators, governors, and members of Congress who have been vetted by their state's electorates
But wait.
Leftist pundit Matthew Yglesias writes that Democrats have the same problem as do Republicans, the ones who are insisting that Trump won in 2020 and that human life must be protected, beginning at fertilization. The activists and professionals in the two parties don't represent the broad middle of American voters. They represent the near-extremes. The proof of that pudding is that the three leading Democratic U.S. Senate candidates from California oppose the Biden-supported bipartisan border deal. To get a convention nomination a candidate must remain acceptable to its leading-edge flanks. A Democrat who supported a 21-week abortion period would run afoul of reproductive rights advocates who insist that it is the woman's choice, not subject to politically chosen end-dates. Democrats who compete with Democrats cannot choose a broadly popular position on immigration regulation, nor on natural gas as a transition fuel, nor on energy drilling, nor on siting offshore wind, nor on transgender rights on bathroom use, athletic competition, and gender-affirming care for minors.
Biden, with all his flaws, did something important for Democrats when he won in South Carolina four years ago. He was the one person who could lead Democrats from a party centered around the politics of approximately Elizabeth Warren, to the politics of the center-left. Many Democrats regret that because engaged Democrats have moved left. The country has not.
The problem with a brokered convention is that Democrats would not nominate someone whose politics reflect the American center. Those activists and professionals would see a weak Trump and decide this is not time to compromise. They would likely "go big."
Biden carried battleground states -- but barely. Trump is not as unacceptable to voters as most Democrats think he should be. Democrats who are well-tethered to voters are brought back to reality on what is popular. South Carolina did that for Democrats in 2020. A brokered convention allows them to vote their aspirations.
Democratic aspirations are not yet broadly popular enough to win in the states needed to carry the Electoral College.
I haven't considered the NYT as a credible news source for months now. Cancelled my 17 year subscription d/t all of their Biden bashing. So much about Biden's age, while silent about the monstrous behavior of don the con & virtually nothing about the accomplishments of President Biden, which are many. I include financial security as one of them. It seems as if they, as well as the majority of major news sources, Kristen Welker among them, are doing all that they can to bash the man for his age & to get trump elected. Apparently they've forgotten Queen Elizabeth & her age & reign. It appears that the Queen's son & grandson will not be up to the task of governing Britain, nor are they as loved & trusted as she was.
Biden's been a good president, but Ezra Klein & the NYT is not reporting that.
Wonder who owns them now?
On the contrary, recent polls show popular support for Democratic policies: 58% for continued aid to Ukraine; 72% making civilian refugees a priority in immigration policy; 63% for living wage; 61% for abortion rights; 57% health care for all; 70% more affordable child care options; 65% for more government action to fight climate change. These are not radical left ideas. Nixon proposed a guaranteed minimum income.