Republicans got a big win. Abortion opponents are giddy.
Big wins create big backlash.
The Roe victory was so sweeping that even Trump was magnanimous, willing to share credit with God. "God made the decision," he told Fox News.
This week the Supreme Court announced a Maine school decision bending toward the free exercise of religion. The Court announced a ruling against New York State's regulation of concealed handguns. Then the Roe decision. Religion. Guns. Abortion. Those are things the general public recognizes as big wins.
The legal community also noted that the Court reduced the meaning of the Miranda warning. Better for police; worse for defendants. The Court reduced the ability of federal regulatory agencies to regulate industries because it says that laws of Congress, not agency rule-making, needs to create regulations. Of course, a gridlocked and thoroughly-lobbied Congress will be unable to carry out that function.
These five decisions have unleashed the thrill of victory and opportunity among Republicans. After a half-century of frustration, the conservative movement is a fullback breaking through the line with an open field ahead.
At a party of lawyers on Thursday a Republican lawyer took me aside to say Trump isn't the issue for Republicans. "Sure, Trump is bad but Biden is worse. Biden is a disaster. Inflation. Afghanistan. He's the worst president since Carter. Worse, even."
I asked if he was OK with Trump and the aftermath of the election.
"Trump has done some bad things and good things," he said. "They balance out. Look at gasoline prices. $5.50 a gallon. Fentanyl is killing Americans and it is pouring across the southern border. Groceries are up. It's about Biden and inflation. I am as optimistic as I have ever been about Republican chances."
For Republicans, this week's news isn't about January 6. Opportunity beckons. A state-by-state abortion ban is just the beginning. Michael Pence spoke in Chicago:
“Now that Roe v. Wade has been consigned to the ash heap of history, a new arena in the cause of life has emerged, and it is incumbent on all who cherish the sanctity of life to resolve that we will take the defense of the unborn and the support for women in crisis pregnancy centers to every state in America. Having been given this second chance for Life, we must not rest and must not relent until the sanctity of life is restored to the center of American law in every state in the land.”
An ongoing theme of this blog is that every action creates a unintended reaction. Revolutions create counter-revolutions. Democrats can be as energized as Republicans.
But recent experience with Texas is not encouraging. Texas has had an abortion ban since September 1, 2021--nine months ago. There was no earthquake of political re-alignment and feminist rage in Texas. Texans voted as they always have, with signs that Latino districts in south Texas may be aligning even more Republican than usual.
There is a structural problem for abortion-rights advocates. People with means will still be able to get abortions. Beginning this morning, trigger laws have gone into effect and we now have a patchwork of states that prohibit and allow abortions. People who can raise $1,000 and take one or two days off work can get an abortion by traveling to a state that permits them.
The effort to create a national ban might energize voters in blue states, but travel will still be an escape for the prosperous. Today round-trip flights from Houston to Toronto are about $650. It is the same price from St. Louis, Salt Lake City, Charlotte, Omaha, and Charleston. Round-trip flights from Miami to Toronto are about $850.
International travel is more complicated. A woman needs a passport. There may be COVID rules. Canada may change its policy of medical care to U.S. travelers. They are available to people who pay out out of pocket. Currently there are wait lists, although the supply and demand for physicians might stabilize if Canada becomes a destination. These complications create an insurmountable barrier for many people. For them, abortion bans are a catastrophe. For people with financial and social capital, abortion bans are an irritating but manageable problem.
Republicans are already making the error of overreach. State-by-state bans on abortion after 15 weeks might stake out political middle ground and a sustainable equilibrium. That is not what we are seeing. Excited by the opportunity to strike while the iron is hot, Republicans are defining abortion in a way that interferes with implantation-based contraception, in vitro fertilization, and morning-after medications. I expect that to motivate a broad-based coalition in opposition--the counter-revolution.
Democrats will win the abortion war when enough women feel that the government is affecting them, their own personal lives and decisions. Republicans seem determined to create exactly that response.
The biggest win Republicans scored in this last week was a return to the supremacy of States' Rights (ironically, the political philosophy that gave rise to the Republican Party in the first place). "Originalism" (not practiced, by any stretch of the imagination, by any of the extremists making up the conservative majority of the Court) essentially means ignoring the 14th Amendment, ending the ability of the federal government to regulate business and enforce civil rights. And we thought Republicans just wanted to roll back the clock to Leave It To Beaver 1950s! We missed their real goal by a century
“Democrats will win the abortion war when enough women feel that the government is affecting them“
Democrats must come to a realistic definition of “woman” first. Any debate about reproductive rights will become a quicksand puddle for the pro-choice proponent.