Israel cannot win. It can only lose.
You cannot kill your way to victory against an insurgency.
Today's guest post author is not an expert on the Middle East. He is an American veteran of the U.S. experience in Vietnam.
He came out of that experience with a simple, clear idea: A foreign power cannot defeat an insurgency. It can try. We tried in Vietnam and learned that a country can kill individuals, but not an idea that gives purpose to a people. Stalin tried mass murder by starving Ukrainians, but Ukraine and Ukrainians survive. Hitler tried mass murder, but Jews survived and have a homeland. White Americans tried with the Indigenous people of North America. Native people survived, and more of them are crossing the southern border, repopulating the U.S. right now.
Jews can be killed, but the tribe, its culture, language, and religion could not be destroyed. They are an insurgency that arose empowered by the tragedy of the Holocaust. Israel's problem is that Palestinians can be killed but the Palestinian tribe, culture, language, and religion cannot be destroyed. They, too, are an insurgency, empowered by the tragedy of their own history.
Guest Post by Larry Slessler
HAMAS is in reality an insurgency. Insurgencies are rarely defeated. A few examples of my point:
***The American insurgency forces win a revolution against Great Britain.
***The French were defeated by the Viet Minh in the 1950's. This is followed by the U.S. defeat at the hands of the Viet Cong in a decade's long counterinsurgency effort from the late 1950's through the early 1970's.
***The Soviets took a loss after their decade-long effort in Afghanistan ended in 1989.". . . and the band played on."
Overwhelming military force is no guarantee of a victory over an insurgency. It is "fool's gold." Insurgencies are not wars of taking ground, that easy measuring-stick guaranteeing victory or defeat. The insurgency is a conflict of the heart, soul and beliefs of the insurgents.
Insurgencies enjoy a stacked deck. The insurgency will win by not losing. The invading military force does not have that luxury. The major military power has to post a complete win, or they lose. In Vietnam we won battles time after time. We enjoyed complete air superiority and overwhelming firepower. However our enemy triumphed by never fully losing.
Part of this can be explained by the fact that the Insurgency is fighting on its home turf. Another major factor is illustrated by the allegory of a "Bacon and egg breakfast." In that meal, the chicken is involved but the pig is committed. I served in Vietnam with a goal of going home alive (involvement). My enemy was defending his home country, was committed to the war for the duration, and was much more willing to die than I was (commitment). U.S. leaders tried to convince us we were in Vietnam to contain evil communism and to free the oppressed people of Vietnam. Those goals were not embraced over time by the majority of Americans. LBJ's decision not to run for re-election in 1968 was a result of a failure to convince a majority of Americans that the war was worth the cost.
The cost-factor is critical for the anti-insurgency forces' home population. They will grow tired of the cost of the war and the body bags and the return of their wounded loved ones. Think British in the American Revolution and the U.S. in Vietnam.
Unless the homegrown insurgency is 100% rooted out and destroyed, time is always their ally. The strategy of winning by not losing has played out over centuries of conflicts.
Israel seems to believe that overwhelming firepower will ensure victory. It never has, and my bet is it won't for the Israelis against Hamas. Every person Israel kills will be a recruitment opportunity for Hamas.
As I stated at the top: Bet on a Hamas victory somewhere down the line. Or maybe better called a defeat for Israel.
Without a separate Palestine it's highly unlikely the state of Israel can survive. It's been a tough road with many ups and downs, but for every one of the oppressed Palestenians in this situation of all out genocide by the right wing in Israel, it's doubtful that Israel can continue for long...I wish for an independent Israeli homeland to continue, but doubt it's existence as long as the Likud pulls the strings...geopolitics don't look good with worldwide public opinion of what is really happening in Gaza...
While your guest columnist kept his focus, although I'm sorry to say that I think his prediction is wrong. In your introduction you didn't keep your focus. You confused the survival of a conquered people (Jews, Native Americans) with the defeat of an invading or occupying force (in Vietnam and Afghanistan). Israel will defeat the Palestinians in the sense that it will successfully occupy all of its land--that's what it's been doing for decades and is in the process of finishing the job. True, there will be Palestinians, some in Israel (20% of Israeli citizens currently are Palestinians), mostly living in the other lands. But there will be no Palestine.