U.S. Representative Lori Cheves-DeRemer is between a rock and a hard place.
She was one of the 20 holdouts -- the GOP Representatives who did not support Jim Jordan.
The rock is the need for a Speaker.
The hard place is that if Jim Jordan becomes Speaker she will be voted out of office.
Lori Chavez-DeRemer represents an Oregon Congressional District that voted for Biden 55-43%. The District is a mix of upscale suburbs of Portland plus rural areas leading toward the prosperous, now-Democratic city of Bend. Democrats were in charge of drawing Congressional District lines in Oregon. They did a credible job of creating Districts where Republicans had good chances of winning if they fielded moderate candidates. In the case of Oregon's 5th, the conservative Democratic incumbent lost his primary to a Democrat who had support from progressives in the party. Amid that internal trouble among Democrats, Republican Chavez-DeRemer squeaked out a victory, 51-49%.
She is vulnerable. She is scrambling to hold the seat. She has already banked $1.3 million for her campaign, far out-raising all three Democratic opponents vying to replace her, including the woman she narrowly beat, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who is back for another try. Speaker Jordan would be a huge problem for Chavez-DeRemer. He is still an election denier. He led government shutdowns. He defied a House subpoena to testify about Trump's conversations with him on January 6. He wants a national abortion ban. Former Republican Speaker John Boehner calls him a "legislative terrorist." He owes his Speakership to the Marjorie Taylor Green-Matt Gaetz-Lauren Boebert faction of the GOP.
No doubt Jim Jordan would help her raise money if she gets on board, but money won't help her if she is tagged as an extremist. She voted for McCarthy yesterday as a way to withhold her vote from Jordan. The pressure is on her from Jordan, House colleagues, and conservative media hosts. X, formerly Twitter, contains posts urging people to "light up her phone" telling her to support Jordan. Jordan can plead and bully but Republicans in blue and purple Districts see the peril. She might survive if she can position herself as a bipartisan moderate busy doing the people's business in the House -- but not if she is on record as a MAGA collaborator.
Today is a moment of truth.
She posted a big explanation on X. It says the right thing, but the very fact that she needs to say it shows how bad a spot she is in. Trump and Jordan have the big megaphone. If Jordan runs the House he will define her. It is hard for a junior Member of Congress to carve out a separate brand that anyone would notice.
Unless. Unless she does something big, with the body language of a hugely consequential vote sticking with a small group that denies Jim Jordan the Speakership. Possibly that group of 20 could go another step and be the core for a bipartisan coalition to lead Congress. That would get noticed.
It is still unlikely, but it is more possible now than it was a week ago. I don't expect it. At crucial decision points the GOP has repeatedly chosen its MAGA base, not its dwindling centrists. But the 20 may surprise us. It would be the unmistakable body-language action that might save her seat.
Here's what she wrote:
Good for her. I still want her defeated, as part of Dems retaking the House.
She has yet to hold an actual, in-person, town hall meeting before her constituents. She fears us (apparently) and/or calculates that her own supporters don't need to actually interact with their Chosen One.