The Glenn Younkin insurgency.

 Nevermind.

"You say, "Goodbye"
     and I say, "Hello, hello, hello"

I don't know why you say, "Goodbye",
     I say, "Hello, hello, hello"

Hello, Goodbye, The Beatles, 1967 

Glenn Younkin: Hopes dashed for a big win

Glenn Younkin tried a hello. Virginians said goodbye.

Ambitious people see the presidential landscape and sense an opportunity. They see the polls saying Americans want something other than a rematch of Biden and Trump, and the current rivals to them aren't catching on. Surprises happen. Carter in 1976; Clinton left for dead mired in scandal in 1992; McCain, broke, then resurrected in 2008; Biden's sudden victory in South Carolina. It could happen! We sang the song as children: “Like a bolt out of the blue fate steps in and sees you through./When you wish upon a star your dreams come true.”

Glenn Younkin was a star -- a rising political star in Virginia.  He had an dream and a plan. He could be a fresh-faced popular governor who won in a blue state. He proposed a consensus position on abortion. He urged voters to give him a GOP legislature. Then, with a GOP House, Senate, and the governorship, Virginia could pass a 15-week abortion law. The world would notice the can-do winner who could solve real-world problems. He would file to run for president as a Republican. He would be a little bit MAGA -- MAGA enough to keep GOP support -- but not so MAGA so as to scare Democrats. He smiles. He frames his rough talk on schools as protecting parents. He doesn't criticize Trump as much as sidestep him. It was a sweet spot.

Then reality crashed in. Voters sniffed out MAGA. Republican are not trusted on abortion. The loss dashed his hopes to be the dark-horse hero.

Jack Mullen has a close-up view of Virginia politics. Jack picked and thinned pears with me in Southern Oregon orchards back in the late 1960s. A decade later we both worked for U.S. Rep. Jim Weaver. He now lives in Washington, D.C. where he follows sports and politics. 

Jack Mullen and his wife Jennifer Angelo

Guest Post by Jack Mullen

Last week’s elections in Ohio, Virginia, Kentucky and Mississippi provide fodder for what might lie ahead in the 2024 elections. Virginia provides an interesting tale. Nationally, moderate Republicans and independents kept a hopeful eye on Virginia’s dashing young governor, Glenn Youngkin.

What with the U.S. House of Representatives in a state of disfunction, along with a crop of less-than-inspiring challengers to Donald Trump, a scenario for a Republican white knight coming in to save the day presented itself in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Wealthy Republican donors sought a national candidate like Glenn Youngkin. Youngkin, traveling to fundraisers around the country, was willing and able to jump into the 2024 Presidential race. All Youngkin had to do was keep Republican control of the Virginia state Senate and regain control of the House of Delegates. Last week, he could do neither.

How could a handsome, well spoken, non-threatening, former collegiate basketball player not appeal to a “purple” Virginia electorate? Was he too MAGA or not MAGA enough? Virginia voters saw in Youngkin MAGA lite and decided meh.

Youngkin tried a middle-of-the-road compromise on abortion. Where Virginia permits abortions until 27 weeks of pregnancy, Youngkin promoted a 15-week ban. His plans to cut taxes and weaken environmental protections worked well two years ago when he beat Democrat Terry McAuliffe for governor.

Once ensconced in the governor’s chair, Youngkin veered right. His touted “parental rights” campaign on education. He went off the rails. He banned books like the 1619 Project, and set up a hot line in his office for parents to air grievances they have with their kids' teachers. He directed schools to weaken protections for transgender students. He secured Virginia’s withdrawal from a multi-state Regional Greenhouse Initiative.

Last week, Virginians voters threw out many Christian Right school board members and replaced them with more traditional members. The groundswell of resentment of creeping MAGA policies on Virginia’s local and statewide level might be the most telling result of last week’s elections. What remains to be seen is if what happened in Virginia plays out in the five swing states in the 2024 election.

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