In the long run, big things shape the little things.
In matters of war and peace, our attention from day to day is on events. A breakthrough by Ukraine forces might cause Russia to change tactics and strategy. But the war exists in the first place because of national interests of Russia, Ukraine, Europe, the West, business, culture, religion, and human nature. The big things.
My blog post of two days ago reflected on how the war in Ukraine might end. Russia had a vital interest, I wrote, which explains their occupation of Crimea and the eastern provinces of Ukraine and the risk they took in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The easy and simple way to explain Russian actions is the "Hitler-model," -- an armed robber out to steal another's land. I think most Americans see it that way. This is 1938 again.
Russians have another view of it. Americans don't need to agree with the view, but they need to understand it. Americans can discount it, saying it is a result of relentless propaganda fed Russians, but that does not make it any less real or politically potent. (Fox News and Trump express a relentless story of Trump's righteous innocence. A huge number of Americans believe it, including one of two political parties. Believers have super-majorities in many states and nearly all rural parts of every state.)
Putin says Russia is under attack. Russians believe that. Putin explains that Ukraine is Russian. The Ukrainian language has the same roots as Russian, and there are lots of people in Ukraine whose first language is Russian, not Ukrainian, especially in the places Russia now occupies. Russians think Ukraine is being seduced by the West. They think it is being corrupted by a secular, commercial, Godless, wicked modernism away from traditional Orthodox Christian virtues -- an argument with salience here in America.
Putin says Ukraine and Russia "are one people. Kiev is the mother of Russian cities. Ancient Rus’ is our common source and we cannot live without each other."
Russians believe that their country's vital interests are at stake. Russia has oil to sell. Germany and Europe need its oil, and they were doing good business until the USA meddled. Russia needs friendly countries to its northwest -- Belarus and Poland -- so they cannot be held hostage by them in transporting oil. They need Ukraine to be friendly, or better yet, fully Russian, for transportation of Russian oil and wheat across Ukraine or through the Black Sea and to the world. Russia cannot have hostile neighbors to the west.
One way for Americans to think of this is to say "Tough luck, Russia. We win, you lose." That is what Russians perceive from us, which energizes and justifies their sacrifice in this war. Russians think they are the innocent party here, fighting to preserve their country. Are they wrong? They don't think so.
George Friedman's Geopolitical Futures takes the long view of history. He analyzes the behavior of nation states in the manner of a chess game. Countries have national interests which shape their behaviors, even as specific leaders or popular majorities come and go. To better understand the path to peace in Ukraine, read in more detail what Friedman thinks animates Russian actions.
The quick and easy thought for Americans is to perceive Russia as a failed state, losing population, its people dying young, corrupt, a has-been country. This war in Ukraine is an opportunity to crush Russia, not accommodate it. The sooner it is irrelevant and dissolved, the better for us and the world. It is a good sound bite for a candidate. Sound tough and dismissive. That sound bite is in Russian ears, too, and it stiffens their resolve. The Russian people, language, religion, and culture have been around since the 9th century. They lost some 25 million people preserving that culture in WWII. They have national pride. They have nuclear weapons. It makes sense to know what they want and what they fear.
Very thoughtful article. I tend to think of this as an entirely materialistic struggle on the Russian side, but if most Russians perceive it as a battle within the moral universe, it's going to be a lot harder for Ukraine (which, I think, is battling in that moral space) to win.
I was unfamiliar with Putin's acknowledgement of Kyiv as the mother of Rus, of Russian cities.
He is right. I expect he used the spelling, Kiev.
A good follow-on commentary on the roots of the Ukraine and Russia dispute.