Texas abortion ban: disaster for Republicans.

The anti-abortion dog chased the bus and finally caught it in Texas. 

Good news for Democrats. 

The Fox News people know the Texas abortion ban is a disaster for Republicans. Their website this morning tells the story by what it avoids. I counted fifty news stories, but not a single one on the tremendous victory, at long last an abortion ban the Supreme Court didn't immediately swat down. The GOP's goal was reached, a ban on abortions at the time of a fetal heartbeat, i.e. any time after a woman is two weeks "late," and likely before she thinks she is pregnant. "This bill ensures the life of every unborn child with a heartbeat will be saved from the ravages of abortion," Governor Abbott tweeted.

Governor Abbott tweet

Only Tucker Carlson did not get the memo. He charges ahead saying the legislature is representing the people of Texas by outlawing abortion, hurrah and high time, abortions are murder.

The Texas abortion ban is a huge win for Democrats. Americans have generally figured out that they want abortion as a safety net for women, as long as the abortion is done pretty early. Voter sensibilities vary, depending on how early the pregnancy is terminated. Some oppose it at the moment of fertilization but most don't consider a tiny speck of tissue anyone's business but the woman's. Democrats step out of the zone of popular consensus when they insist on abortions late in pregnancy, and that creates a rallying cry that moves the needle of public opinion against them. What Texas has just done is the opposite. They took an extreme position--the most extreme--and got it to stick for now.

We have had fifty years of abortion rights. Women under age 70 have lived in an era where they had easy access to reliable birth control, and then they had an emergency backup safety net in case of an "accident." Every sexually active person knows accidents happen, rarely maybe, but they could . The safety net allowed a positive disconnect between sex and childbearing. Biology did not control. The woman did.

That notion became integrated into American culture and mores. Young couples commonly have premarital sex, and indeed that very term--premarital--is weirdly old fashioned and misplaced. The reality is that people have sex with people they are not expecting to marry or have children with, at least not at the moment. The safety net makes possible a whole suite of behaviors.  American women no longer routinely get married at age 18, as they did sixty years ago, led by custom and impatience to legitimize sex. Now they wait, they finish college, they get a career started, they look around. They marry, if at all, in their late 20s or later. People have sex together because they want it. People move in together because they are "partnered." They marry because they want to start a family.

No doubt there are many young women who save their virginity until marriage and no doubt some young couples hide their behavior to shelter the sensibilities of parents or grandparents, but for better or worse, the mainstream culture has changed. Texas' law does more than ban abortion. It reconnects sex with the chance of an unplanned pregnancy. One could be stuck. One could need to fly out of state and then get sued and pay $10,000 and attorney fees. Yikes!

 A poll of 1,804 working-age adults with college degrees found 79% do not want Roe v. Wade overturned and 80% say abortion access is an important element of women's rights and gender equality. Click

The poll creators conclude: 

Large majorities of top talent support abortion access and consider the issue part of gender equity in the workplace; 

Two-thirds say the Texas ban would discourage them from working in the state;

64% say they would not apply for a job in a state that passed a ban like Texas';

About half says they would consider moving out-of-state if their lawmakers passed a similar ban.

A total ban on abortion will play the same role that Trump played in the 2020 election. Boogie man. Crazy man. It is the big flashing yellow warning light.

This blog has observed that Biden did not win in 2020. Biden lost, but Trump lost bigger. The Texas GOP came through for Democrats.