TACO-Trump wises up

Trump treats "TACO"-- Trump Always Chickens Out -- as an insult.

Trump wants to project strength and fortitude.

In fact, his chickening out is a key part of Trump's political strength. He talks big and brave. Then caves, and does what is smart and popular. He is already in retreat on immigration.

Trump is bowing to simple reality -- and to mocking insults delivered by California Governor Gavin Newsom.

Gavin Newsom blasted President Trump, saying he was a phony. Newsom said Trump projected "weakness -- weakness masquerading as strength." He criticized Trump for directing the priorities of ICE away from the criminals that he promised to target and toward the most vulnerable, easiest-to-catch people; children; pregnant women. Newsom attacked Trump's alpha-male, tough-guy brand.

But instead of focusing on undocumented immigrants with serious criminal records and people with final deportation orders – a strategy both parties have long supported – this administration is pushing mass deportations.

Indiscriminately targeting hard-working immigrant families, regardless of their roots or risk. . . .

On Saturday morning, when federal agents jumped out of an unmarked van near a Home Depot parking lot, they began grabbing people.

A deliberate targeting of a heavily Latino suburb.

A similar scene also played out when a clothing company was raided downtown.

In other actions: a US citizen, 9 months pregnant – arrested. A four-year-old girl – taken.

Families separated. Friends disappearing.

His agents are arresting dishwashers, gardeners, day laborers and seamstresses – That’s just weakness. Weakness, masquerading as strength.

That was Newsom's ultimate group on the list, emphasized with his voice: seamstresses. Mister-Tough-Guy-Trump goes after harmless women sitting at sewing machines.

Simultaneously, Trump was responding to the reality that undocumented workers are an essential part of the American economy. Employers were complaining. There was a mismatch between a popular political message and the reality of what Americans want and need. The idea is that the work of hard physical labor in agriculture, construction, and slaughterhouses would get done by native-born Americans at prices employers can pay. The reality is that crops won't get tended or picked, animals won't get slaughtered, landscaping won't get tended, hotel rooms won't get cleaned, and roofs won't get repaired.

Trump's message of America-for-Americans-immigrants-get-out appeals to the MAGA base, and his policy advisor Stephen Miller seems to believe it, but it conflicts with economic reality. It also conflicts with the perception of a majority of Americans. Those day laborers, farm workers, and men working with hot tar on hot roofs on hot afternoons don't look like villains to Americans. They look like people working their butts off doing unpleasant work in unpleasant conditions. They look like victims of circumstances. And that was who Trump is picking on.

Trump has manifest character and moral flaws, but he is not stupid or tone-deaf to the desire of a majority of the American public.

We won't have mass deportation of immigrants because our economy cannot do without their labor. Trump is doing with immigration what he is doing with tariffs: making noise, disrupting the status quo, using the disruption to change a few things that were stuck in place out of inertia.

Democrats who hoped that Trump would self-destruct with trade-killing recession-causing tariffs will be disappointed. The stock market already presumes that Trump will TACO-out, even if he claims he didn't and that he made some terrific one-sided deal. The same will happen with immigration. He is TACO-ing there, too. Crops will still get picked.

Newsom was smart to get ahead of this, and finally, finally!, a Democrat showed some street smarts. Trump was going to TACO-out on immigration anyway -- he has to -- but now Newsom has positioned himself as the guy who chased him in the direction he was going to go anyway.

Newsom needs to keep the message going that Trump isn't getting moderate and realistic. No, he is breaking his promise and chickening out because the tall, good-looking, tough-minded governor of California shamed him into it.