Report from Mexico

(A Trump-free post)

February 22: State Department Travel Warning: Avoid much of Mexico.

February 25: Travel Warning lifted.

“All restrictions related to the events of February 22 on U.S. government staff in Mexico have been lifted. The U.S. Embassy and all consulates in Mexico are operating normally.”

What the heck was going on in Mexico this week?

The Mexican government, apparently with U.S help, killed a leader of a major drug gang while trying to arrest him. That triggered a well-established response in the form of localized violence staged by members of the drug cartel.

From my home in Medford, Oregon it seemed dangerous. Roadblocks. Burning cars. The State Department travel warning confirmed my concerns. College classmate and Mexican expat Erich Almasy seemed quite sanguine when I telephoned him. I didn’t hear gunfire in the background while we talked. Quite the opposite. He spoke of concerts and dinners with friends. He said there is a pattern to these events and he doesn’t expect trouble. He agreed to send me his perspective.

Erich Almasy and wife Cynthia Blanton

Guest post by Erich Almasy

México has an extremely violent history. Although, to be fair, many of the over 70 countries my wife and I have visited can claim a similar heritage. Including the United States. When they think of the Mexican Revolution, fought between 1910 and 1920, most Americans imagine a bandolier-wearing mustachioed Pancho Villa. During that conflict, a population of roughly 15 million was reduced by an estimated 19 percent due to disease, famine, and warfare; that’s more than the German Army lost in World War I. The late 1920s were not much better, as 200,000 died in the Cristero Wars fought between Catholics and anti-clerics.

During Prohibition, the families of the Tequila empires of José Cuervo and Cenobio Sauza fought pitched gun battles on the streets of Guadalajara. Since the founding of the Mexican Republic in 1824, three of its presidents have been assassinated, including two in the twentieth century. (NOTE: The United States tops this with four presidential assassinations, including two in the twentieth century). Partly because of this history, by law, Mexicans (and expats) are not allowed to own guns, even for hunting. The weapons used by the cartels, including the surface-to-air missile that recently damaged a police helicopter, were all bought in the United States and illegally smuggled into México.

NBC News headline

The death during arrest on February 22 of the New Jalisco Generation cartel head Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, better known as “El Mencho,” has sparked concern of major political and social upheaval in México, with cartel members blockading roads, burning buses and vehicles, and shooting National Guard members. On Sunday, tourist areas in Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara were placed under lockdown. Many American airlines canceled flights to México, and in San Miguel de Allende, our mayor called for a curfew. By the next day, all was calm and back to normal. My Mexican friends tell me this is par for the course and cite some compelling evidence that both the capture (and sometimes death) of major cartel heads, followed by noticeable violence, is actually a choreographed element of Mexican politics. Known as the Kingpin Strategy, it began with the capture and extradition to the United States of Miguel Ángel Félix Gallardo, head of the Guadalajara cartel in 1989. Since 1995, nearly every Mexican president has conducted a major raid on cartels.

—- 2022 (Andrés Manuel López Obrador presidency) witnessed the capture of Rafael Caro Quintero, head of the Guadalajara cartel.

— 2016 (Enrique Peña Nieto presidency) witnessed the third recapture and transfer to the United States of “El Chapo” Guzman, leader of the Sinaloa cartel.

— 2013 (also Enrique Peña Nieto’s presidency) saw the capture and extradition of Miguel Ángel Treviño Morales, boss of the Los Zetas cartel.

— 2012 (Felipe Calderón presidency), Heriberto Lazcano, known as “El Lazca” (the Crazy One), head of Los Zetas, was killed by Mexican marines.

— 2010 (also during the Felipe Calderón presidency) saw the deaths of “Tony Tormenta,” the boss of the Gulf cartel, and “Nacho” Coronel, leader of the Sinaloa cartel.

— 2002 (Vicente Fox Quesada presidency) saw the death of Ramón Arellano Félix, head of the Tijuana cartel.

— 1997 (Ernesto Zedillo presidency) saw the death of Amado Carillo Fuentes, head of the Juárez cartel.

The follow-up to these raids is always the same, with blockades, threats of assassination, and vehicle-burning. They are not to be taken lightly, but again, my Mexican friends are both cynical and sanguine about these violent demonstrations. They point to the apparent appearance of “captured” cartel heads in places like Bali, years after their supposed incarceration. They have a point that this is theater. It is not in any of the cartels’ interests to harm tourism and damage an industry that welcomes 48 million people, employs nearly 8 million people, and accounts for 8 percent of México’s GDP. As of today, Tuesday, February 24, the U.S. State Department has removed all warnings for Americans. The peso stayed steady at about 17.3 per U.S. dollar.

My wife and I moved to San Miguel de Allende in the fall of 2019. The town is almost 500 years old, and its colonial architecture and UNESCO World Heritage Site designation make it one of the most popular tourist attractions in México. We are surrounded by 12-foot colonial-architecture walls, and we pay for a nightly neighborhood security guard. We have suffered no personal or property crime, unlike our six-years in San Francisco, where our car was broken into twice, and our home was attacked with an ax. Just as we did in San Francisco, New York, and Toronto, we are vigilant about our surroundings.