Republicans facing tough races are adjusting their positions on abortion.
Before:
2020: "Life is a gift from God and every person has dignity and worth. Life should be protected – at all stages. With respect to abortion, he is strongly pro-life."
Now:
2022: "I believe permitting abortion up to 15 weeks and in cases involving rape, incest, and when a mother's life is at risk is a very reasonable position."
The candidate quoted here is Mark Ronchetti. In 2020 he was running for U.S. Senate in New Mexico. Now he is a candidate to be New Mexico's governor. In 2020, before the Dobbs decision reversed Roe v. Wade, his position was political posturing. Now his position has consequences. Blake Masters, the Republican nominee challenging Arizona's Senator Mark Kelly, has also repositioned. He quietly changed his campaign website's statement on abortion.
Before:
Support a federal personhood law (ideally a Constitutional amendment) that recognizes that unborn babies are human beings that may not be killed.
Now website reads that he wants to ban third-trimester abortions and that he supports making it easier "for pregnant women to support a family and decide to choose life." The earlier position for Masters was the gold standard for the pro-life movement, a Constitutional "personhood" amendment. Abortion is murder. The new position makes abortion a matter of persuasion. He used the word "choice." Choose life.
Neither Ronchetti nor Masters are defending young embryos. They are opposing late term abortions. Each is going on the attack, blaming the Democratic opponent for being the extremist in the race. Now the Republican is the conciliator. A Ronchetti ad described his opponent:
The governor supports abortion, up to birth. That's extreme. I'm personally pro life, but I believe we can all come together on a policy that reflects our shared values. We can end late term abortion while protecting access to contraception and health care.
Democrats have a vulnerability. The orthodox Democratic position on abortion--one that would protect a Democrat's left flank in a primary--has quietly moved beyond Roe v. Wade, and the Bill Clinton "safe, legal, and rare" position. By positioning abortion as a matter of rights and autonomy, Democrats defend the politically uncomfortable position of late term abortions. It is the Democratic equivalent of the 10-year-old rape victim--a position they end up taking because of the logic of the principle they are defending. For Democrats, autonomy. For Republicans, embryo life.
Democrats have an advantage in this war of positioning. Democrats are defending a status quo against a wave of GOP victories establishing abortion bans. Republican majorities in red states jumped on their opportunity and went big. They weren't looking to "come together around a policy that reflects our shared values." Even in Texas, with its big enclaves of blue cities, the six-week limit is still in effect. In Indiana, where the 10-year-old girl had to go out of state for an abortion, the state Attorney General discussed prosecuting the doctor. Republicans are the ones pushing change. Democrats are disorganized and fractious and therefore less dangerous. On abortion, when Republicans get a majority they go into lockstep and get carried away.
In their rush to ban abortion, the Trumpers on the Supreme Court may have hung themselves by their own petard. Too many silent Americans--surprise!--don't like being told what women can do or not do with their bodies. Hence the welcome backlash as Trumpers are being beaten in special Congressional races, heretofore toss-ups--by outspoken pro-choice Democrats. Yes, Virginia, issues do matter.