Lots of little things matter in a campaign.
There is one big thing. Political party.
This blog got started seven years ago when I began noticing little things. I noticed how long Hillary Clinton stood at a three-hour event. (All of it.) I noticed the high school band playing outside a Trump event in New Hampshire. It gave a feel of "a rally," not a speech. I noticed that Marco Rubio's speeches in Florida were a back and forth mix of English and Spanish. I noticed Amy Klobuchar wore drab clothes.
It was engaging to be attentive and to think that these subtle elements created the first impression and then the ultimate brand of the candidate. That led to the cynical insight that politics was a lot like professional wrestling, with candidates adopting larger-than-life stereotype roles. Bully vs. Nerd vs. Schoolmarm vs. Wanna-be.
Yesterday's election results are leading me to a different insight. Maybe all that branding is nearly irrelevant, except at the very margin in close races. Maybe candidates mostly carry just one brand: Political party.
U.S. Senator Ron Wyden won handily statewide. He ran against a nearly invisible Republican candidate. Jo Re Perkins was an invisible, token Republican candidate. A placeholder. She got 42% of the vote statewide. Ron Wyden is a political pro, having been in the House, and now the Senate, for 42 years. He meets citizens in a town hall in every one of the 36 Oregon counties every year. He does everything a workhorse officeholder is supposed to do. He is a centrist, not a liberal/progressive. He is so formidable that Republican PACs and interest groups leave him alone. He spent significant money on advertisements anyway. He is the high water mark for a Democrat in Oregon. He got 55% of the statewide vote.
There we see the range of statewide possibility for this year. The weakest possible Republican 42% versus the strongest possible Democrat, 55%. In my home county, Jackson, the result was Wyden 46%, Perkins 51%. We see the high water mark of Democratic candidate quality and visibility here in this county: a 5% Republican edge.
In a local Jackson County Commissioner race we see the partisan skew when most voters know very little other than party. Local political news has largely disappeared. There is no "earned media" coverage of issues. Candidates get little opportunity to air differences on matters of policy of local consequence. We need a new, bigger jail, and if so how big should it be and should we pay for it? The websites are anodyne assertions of political mush: "We need a sound educational foundation for our precious children." We learn nothing meaningful.
We see a baseline in an election where few people know enough to compare the two candidates: Democrat Denise Krause, 42%. The incumbent Republican Rick Dyer, 58%.
The range of possibilities emerge. It helps to explain Tim Ryan's loss in Ohio and the close race in Georgia. Ryan is a Democrat in Republican-leaning Ohio. Walker is a Republican in Georgia, and if elected he will do Republican things.
In Jackson County Oregon, the baseline for a Democrat running county-wide is 42%, based on the Denise Krause vote. The high water mark for a hugely funded, well known, and essentially unopposed Democrat, Wyden, is 46%.
Yes, campaigns matter. Candidate visibility matters. Candidate quality matters. But not that much, about 4%. Of course, in a closely divided and highly partisan electorate, 4% is often the difference between winning and losing.
I've said for years "The only thing worse than voting down party lines is voting Name Recognition".
Have to agree with the high water remarks. Once again, excellent essay.