I don't think Donald Trump will file bankruptcy.
A foreign government or American billionaire will rescue him. Probably the billionaire.
First, let's acknowledge that a half-billion dollars isn't that much money -- not for a national sovereign fund or a multi-billionaire.
Dozens of countries around the world could loan Trump the money. It would stink to high heaven, but the world already saw Saudi Arabia make a two billion investment in Jared Kushner's start-up hedge fund, and the world shrugged. Republicans kept their focus on small potatoes Hunter Biden. Swing voters in battleground states didn't care.
A Baltic country might make the loan to put Trump and Republicans solidly on board in case Russia attacks them. They see what Republicans are doing to Ukraine -- walking away -- and a half billion dollar loan to Trump is cheaper and more effective than building up a military big enough to stop a Russian invasion. It would be a smart move. Hungary might make the loan. Victor Orbán has nothing to lose with Democrats. Putin's Russia would happily do it, but I suspect Republican campaign strategists have already killed that deal. It is too obvious.
A foreign sovereign fund is a possibility, but I think an American billionaire is more likely. A billionaire could act quickly and impulsively. And why not?
At some point, money loses its meaning except a way to signal status or values. Once you have private jets, multiple houses, and university presidents that fawn on you, what else is a billionaire to do with money that has meaning or consequence?
The 50th richest American has more than $16 billion, according to the Forbes list. Some of the people in this pool are politically active. (George Soros has only about $10 billion. If he were an American he would be ranked around 90th-richest.) What is the marginal utility of yet another jet, private island, or post-nuclear-war getaway in New Zealand? There is no status gained from having more toys.
The way to show off status is to own a professional sports team, a major news organ, or a Supreme Court Justice. What tops owning a Supreme Court justice? Owning POTUS.
A loan of $500 million to Trump elevates some run-of-the-mill multi-billionaire to the A-list. That billionaire gains an immediate platform. He could pick an issue to serve as the excuse for the loan.
"Trump supports Israel."
"Trump support oil."
"Trump is pro-family."
Any of those will do.
Trump reversed positions 180-degrees on TikTok after meeting with billionaire GOP donor Jeff Yass. Yass owns $15 billion worth of ByteDance, the Chinese company that owns TikTok. I had never heard of Yass until a week ago. Now he is bigger than Harlan Crow, who sponsors a mere Supreme Court justice. Yass showed that he has the power to move Trump, and with him the GOP. Yass stepped up.
Trump's opposition to TikTok was transactional. Republicans don't seem disgusted by Trump's switch. They are falling into line, scrambling to reverse policy, now talking about face-saving tinkers, not bans. After all, Gen-Z likes TikTok.
Saudi Arabia's investment with Kushner proved that no one cares about Trump grift. It is a given. Harlan Crow showed that Democrats are helpless to complain about corrupt appearances, and Republicans don't care. They love Clarence Thomas. The process stinks, but they like the results: The Kushner/Trump family got richer and Thomas and his wife are happy.
Which is the better way to be a "person of consequence?" A $500 million gift to one's alma mater or a $500 million loan to Trump that may never be paid back? Would you rather be treated very nicely by a college president or a United States president? If you are a multi-billionaire, you can have both. And why not?
University gifts are a risk. Snot-nose humanities majors at the graduate school with your name on it might start mouthing off about Palestinians getting a raw deal. Ken Griffin learned that the hard way.
Trump cannot be trusted to stay bought any more than Harvard could, but at least Trump can be trusted to do what is in his own best interest. Harvard couldn't even do that. If it's in Trump's best interest to stiff you -- and it almost certainly is -- you don't fuss about getting stiffed. Let it go. He might stay grateful and happy. So it's not a loan; it becomes a gift over time. Your accountants will work out the details. And so what? You have billions to spare.
Win or lose in 2024, Trump will be around, shaping a political party for at least a decade. Being a "friend of Trump" is good currency with GOP officeholders. Get Trump in your debt and you buy a whole party.
I predict some Republican billionaire will step up. Democrats will say it is corrupt. Of course it is corrupt, but Republicans will say "so what?" and swing voters think everybody in D.C. does it so it won't sway many votes. The billionaire will get to play some golf with Trump and Lindsay Graham. People will pay attention to the billionaire for a while.
Money well spent.
Yes, maybe. But I think the more likely scenario is that one or several of the potential bond companies his lawyers were negotiating with will come up with the money. Right now they are waiting as Trump grows more desperate and more willing to pawn properties and accept higher fees. By Saturday evening--or maybe Sunday morning--a deal will be in place.
I predict that it will either be Israel or Saudi Arabia that bails him out. What a strange thing to say, but that's my prediction...Good article Peter. I don't see Russia putting a lot of effort into Trump because he is a loose cannon...