Old men cling to power. Then someone takes it.
Primate politics:
Gorilla males hang onto their harem as long as they can. They get old. They get vulnerable.
Then a younger, stronger bachelor gorilla gets up the nerve to fight him and take over the harem.
American politics:
Same thing.
An astute observer of both juries and primates told me not to expect Joe Biden to "take one for the team." and resign from office after two years.
He said the lingering Silent Generation and Boomer politicians won't turn things over willingly to people their 40s and 50s. They will hang onto power as long as they can, even though it plugs up the flow of new leadership required by their own policy goals. He said:
They know it is selfish. They know it is counter-productive. They do it anyway because they feel entitled. Human nature is to hang onto power until it gets wrest out of their failing aged hands. And the next generation doesn't deserve that power until they can do that to the old guys.
Biden may imagine himself another FDR, but I think the better metaphor is that he is a specialty relief pitcher able to pitch one or two innings, then he is done. He was the indispensable man for striking out a heavy-hitting opposing batter, but now he should leave the mound and give Kamala Harris a chance to show her stuff. If she can't do it, some other reliever will emerge. It would be good for the team.
It isn't the way either gorillas or humans do it. Dianne Feinstein is 88, and was elected to a six-year term in 2018. She has filed paperwork to run for another six-year term for the 2024 election. Senator Chuck Grassley is 88 and he has filed for re-election in 2022. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg hung on to her seat until her death at 87.
Biden is keeping open the potential of running for re-election. Any Democrat who announced a run now must run as an opponent of Biden. Biden is plugging the pipeline.
Donald Trump, too. He says he might run in 2024. He is alert to anyone--Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Ted Cruz, Chris Christie--making signals of a run themselves. He demands other potential aspirants announce, clearly and publicly, that if Trump runs they will not. The harem is his.
There is a bachelor gorilla, impatient and frustrated, scouting the cranky old silverback from a distance: Christ Christie. He's one of many, so he is hoping to shame and diminish the other, more timid bachelor gorillas. Some of them have agreed to Trump's demand of deferral, but Christie speaks out. He said it takes courage to flirt with running because "Donald Trump's own conduct is meant to instill fear" among potential rivals.
Christie positions himself as Mr. Courage:
If you’re going to run for president, you better have enough confidence in yourself that it doesn’t matter who else runs. If you believe you’re the right person, belly up to the bar and run against whoever winds up showing up.
He is also Mr. Integrity. He ratified most of Trump's behavior as president, perhaps making him acceptable to Trump supporters, but only up through November 3rd. Trump's behavior after that was the breaking point, he says.
I think that there are lots of Republicans who believe exactly what I believe, but no one's saying it to them. The only voice they're hearing right now are voices that say that the election was stolen and that's just not true. So you need other voices to speak out. So I'm doing it.
Christie is posturing. Christie said he will make a decision after the mid-terms. It was easy to see Christie in 2015 and 2016 in New Hampshire.
I have seen Christie up close about a dozen times. He is an extraordinarily skilled story teller. He can move a crowd. He dominates. He projects the powerful authoritarian confidence, the my-way-or-else manner GOP voters discovered they liked in a party leader. I predict he will overwhelm soft-spoken, earnest Mike Pence. GOP voters don't want pious. They want a warrior. He projects like a warrior.
If power gets taken from Trump in the GOP it will be from someone a lot like Trump. We will be seeing more of Chris Christie.