I think Nikki Haley would beat Joe Biden in the general election.
Don't worry too much, Democrats. She probably won't get a chance.
Haley is a strong political talent with a good story. If she were a Democrat, with typical Democratic policies, Democrats might find her an appealing representative of the next generation of leadership. Haley doesn't talk much about race. She talks about job growth and new businesses coming to South Carolina.
For now, most people are dismissing Haley. Pundits, along with GOP donors, officeholders, and activists, are cautious. It is dangerous to make an early commitment to a low-polling candidate. Her poll numbers underestimate her potential. DeSantis is stumbling. Trump might get indicted in Georgia, Florida, or in D.C. and a prosecutor may lay out evidence that would finally sink him. Her problem is that she isn't Trump and too many GOP voters still love Trump, the genuine article of Trump-ism. Her campaign needs Trump to disappear.
She has a powerful message, the "immigrant story." Americans like that story. It is the scrappy, rags-to-riches, nobody-to-powerful, work-ethic message of morning in America. Trump is talking about "carnage." Haley has a message of redemption. Haley's America is good at heart. Trump's message is that America is cruel and tribal, and that is the nature of the world, so live with it and win. The immigrant story embeds the idea that America is not racist and tribal, and the success of the messenger is the proof of it. She doesn't need to argue it. Her very biography tells that story. It worked for Obama.
The messenger is a big part of the message. Like Obama, she represents hope and change by her very presence. Her Town Hall stump speech is well practiced. I heard it twice, presented nearly word-for-word. She comes across as a strong defender of American interests, of traditional values, as a jobs-oriented can-do achiever. She says "God bless you" frequently.
Biden is who he is. He cannot look or sound like he represents the future. He suffers from a Catch-22. If he appears old and tired, people say it is the true and essential Biden. If he sounds peppy, pundits and opponents ascribe it to advisors propping him up. All candidates have elements of identity baked into their political persona, and his current age is Biden's. Haley's include that she is female, a person of color, and that she broke through those presumed barriers. She has made her identity a positive.
A general election head-to-head between Haley and Biden would simplify down to the future versus the past. Haley is stuck with some unpopular GOP positions, including on abortion and on the January 6 insurrection. She never mentioned either topic in either of her Town Halls. If she were to get the nomination she will try to come across as somehow moderate on those issues, and keep switching the discussion to jobs, job growth, and jobs yet again.
I will publish a 4-minute video of Haley's stump speech in an upcoming blog post.
Here's Nikki with a weapon bigger than she--and bigger than her understanding of the weapon.
https://twitter.com/NikkiHaley/status/1652282271955648515
Finger on trigger, no bullet in chamber, no magazine, wrong ammo on bench (I think it's belt-feed), and her shoulder ready to get seriously bruised if the gun were loaded. It's gun-porn, and not very good porn, at that.
She'd be a far better candidate if she ran as her genuine self; I think I'd like that person.
The US will NEVER elect a woman president, much less a conservative one. I can’t imagine a single Republican voting for a woman even if she has lived the quintessential American dream. They will discount that because she’s a woman.