Mike Pence is choosing failure
“You don't understand. I could'a had class. I could have been a contender. I could have been somebody, instead of a bum, which is what I am. Let's face it."
Marlon Brando, playing Terry Malloy, On The Waterfront
Mike Pence is at a decision point. He could be a contender.
Mike Pence was in the room. He was an eyewitness. He can testify to what Trump said and heard, what he knew, when he knew it, and what he said his intention was. Mike Pence could pick up the phone, call Benni Thompson, the January 6 Committee Chairman, and say he wants to testify on camera now. I would expect his in-person testimony to be devastating to Trump. We already know a great deal about what Trump saw, said, and did. He did much of it on camera and Trump has already bragged about much of it.
Trump may survive these hearings because Trump's behavior was done so openly and shamelessly that many--maybe most-- Republican voters think it is OK. That may change if they hear Pence describe Trump... We know what Pence thinks; he has said it. But we haven't heard it as testimony under oath: Trump wanted me to help him overthrow the election, and I wouldn't because it was illegal, morally wrong, and unconstitutional.
Pence's testimony would stand apart from tell-all authors. He would not be pleading the Fifth Amendment or refusing to cooperate. He would be doing his duty as a citizen who observed a crime. Of course, he would catch hell for it among Republicans. He would be called a back-stabber. He would be accused of lying for political gain, to pave the way for his own presidential ambition. That criticism would be his visible war wounds, the price paid for his courage. The GOP is still Trump's party. A potential outcome would be some version of what is happening now to Liz Cheney. That’s a risk. Pence would be beloved, but by all the wrong people. Accolades from Democrats and pundits are worse than worthless if one is trying to ingratiate oneself to the GOP primary electorate.
Public testimony is Pence's best path to the presidency. His testimony might sink Trump. Trump is feared, not loved. Pence's revelations could start a cascade of people abandoning Trump. We saw it happen in the immediate aftermath of the Access Hollywood tape. That time the GOP was stuck with Trump, three weeks before the election. People aren't stuck this time.
Pence is taking a dive. Apparently he won't be testifying publicly. Trump will survive and thrive. Republican voters will be able to avert their eyes from Trump's effort to overturn the election. Pence praises Trump for everything but that one little disagreement, and says he would happily have gone along, if only he could have. This does not condemn seditious intent, only Trump's means.
Pence perhaps imagines himself in Iowa or New Hampshire, in a primary election in 2024 against DeSantis, Cruz, Hawley, Don Junior, and a half dozen others. Pence perhaps imagines himself Trump's logical successor. He isn't. Trump was his own successor and Pence blocked it. He is Trump's enemy. Pence is pulling his punches for no good purpose. He will get booed in New Hampshire and Iowa. Pence is taking a dive for the opportunity to come in fifth in the Iowa caucuses.
His chance to make a clear case against Trump is now. He won't be persuasive doing it later as part of a campaign, explaining that he was a reluctant kill-joy.
In the words of the Omar Little character from The Wire, "You come at the king, you best not miss." He didn't come at Pence in January, 2021. He did his duty. But as Trump sees it, Pence went after him. That was once. Pence gets a second chance to be a contender, if he will take it.