MAGA vs. RINO
"That's the battle across America, McConnell versus Trump, in a war for the heart and soul of the Republican Party."
Alabama Senate candidate Mo Brooks
Donald Trump may seize defeat once again.
MAGA vs. RINO.
Democrats are in a tough spot politically. The well-educated White progressives in liberal strongholds are confident they have the moral high ground on climate, borders, policing, racial justice, gender fluidity, and reproductive rights. Democratic candidates who are compliant with the orthodoxy have first claim on campaign money from unions and issue-oriented activists.
This creates a problem for Democrats outside urban and college-town settings. Democratic orthodoxy is ahead of the median Democratic voter, and more so the general election voter. Democratic orthodoxy is more royalist than the king. It is more anti-racist than are most Black Americans. It is more indulgent of immigration illegality than are voters in immigrant communities. The orthodox are more critical of race-conscious policing than are voters in communities of color. Democrats are in sync with the leaders of issue groups, not voters.
Oregon is a microcosm. The money and organizational support that makes a plausible primary candidate hurts them with voters outside cities and with voters who are less committed to the positions of interest groups. Not every Democrat is adamant that abortions at 23 weeks are OK. Not every Democrat thinks Lia Thomas should compete as a woman. Not every Democrat is on board that climate is an immediate crisis. Both Oregon Democratic gubernatorial candidates Tobias Read and Tina Kotek have told me they know they must present themselves as agents of change, in better touch with rural Oregon. They say they know vandalism and homeless encampments in Portland, COVID shutdowns, and state government delays in processing unemployment checks exhausted Oregon voters. They know it but cannot abandon their base voters. They quibble. It isn't reset.
The national Democratic message is in sync with Democratic interest groups, not with the wider voting public. Joe Biden's limitations as a spokesperson exacerbates the problem. He communicates plodding mediocrity and weakness. Democrats cannot pass legislation, and if they do, they cannot explain it. They chase doomed legislation, highlighting what they could not accomplish. There is a national consensus: Democrats will lose big in 2022. Maybe not.
Trump may save Democrats.
Trump has not let up. He is Captain Ahab: Relentless and maniacal. He calls Mitch McConnell a weak, corrupt RINO. He engages actively in GOP primaries to purge the Republicans of Reagan, Bush, Cheney, and Romney elements. Trump endorses the most extreme loyalists in primaries. A Republican voter cannot help but see Trump's work. Georgia's Republican governor, Brian Kemp, tells the story of the pressure put on him to overturn the election. Bill Barr tells his story of an "unfit" president.
Republican officeholders and voters are losing their safe harbor of "Not-Trump, but Trump-adjacent." There had been a middle ground position expressing concern about Trump's tweets. A candidate could say they acknowledge "Biden is president" without saying he won the election. They could say they are anti-Biden so will vote GOP, period. It could work but would work better if Trump would disappear. He doesn't. Republican primary fights are flushing out the mumblers. A candidate is either with Trump or against him. A candidate is MAGA or RINO.
In 2016 there was talk of "grownups in the room" and the likelihood that Trump would become "presidential." That potential is mostly gone. Trump won't surround himself with moderating forces. Trump has gone to war against them.
Both political parties seem determined to lose the 2022 and 2024 election. Voters may have a choice. Democrats are weak and ineffectual, but Republicans are dangerous and crazy.