Liz Cheney, candidate for president
Liz Cheney will lose her re-election to the Wyoming congressional seat, then emerge as a presidential candidate for the reformed GOP in 2028.
It is still the Trump Era in the GOP. The widespread remorse comes later.
We watched a national leader on prime time Thursday evening. Liz Cheney projected courage and competence. She looked like a Commander in Chief. She isn't following the crowd of Trump sycophants, apologists, or mumblers. She is pointing a direction and trying to gather a crowd. The crowd isn't there yet.
The cycle will turn. Trump is too unhinged and undisciplined for Trump to lead the GOP much longer. When Trump-remorse becomes widespread, Liz Cheney will be the person who said it first and best. She speaks of duty and patriotism, not personal advantage. She sacrificed herself for the common good.
Her Wyoming GOP primary opponent, Harriet Hageman, sends me fundraising appeals. The important thing to notice is that they don't criticize Cheney for what she is best known for: Her righteous accusation of Trump's misdeeds involving the 2020 election. Instead, her opponent calls Cheney a Washington elitist. Hageman's real villain is George W. Bush.
Will you help me FIRE Liz Cheney and take back our conservative movement from the elitist establishment that is working arm-in-arm with Joe Biden? . . .
You and I don't have a moment to lose.That's because establishment elitists, like George W. Bush, headline ritzy fundraisers in other states to raise millions for Cheney. That was even after Cheney admitted in a 60 Minutes interview that her record-breaking fundraising haul was helped out by Democrats.If there was ever a time for conservative Americans to stand up to the elitist establishment, it's now. And it's against Liz Cheney.
Hageman makes repeated references to having Trump's endorsement, but she doesn't defend Trump or echo his 2020 claims. By her silence she tacitly admits Cheney's proposition: Trump's behavior is indefensible. She is trying to position Cheney as a follower of D.C. elitists, thereby undermining Cheney's brand as a leader with integrity. It is a tough task. We see Cheney on TV looking like a leader with integrity.
Whether Trump is elected or rejected in 2024, Cheney has an opportunity. Trump is easy to dislike and fear. Trump isn't sanding down the sharp edges of his brand. Quite the opposite. He responded to Thursday's televised hearing by posting that the insurrection was "not simply a protest, it represented the greatest movement in the history of our Country.” If Trump loses yet again, Trump will get the blame.
Trump might win. If Biden runs for re-election, Biden's age and competence will be center stage. Voters may choose vigorous autocracy over fuzzy-headed weakness, especially if inflation is the central issue. Trump will promise to fix it. Nationally, most Democrats have figured out that it is unpopular to make endemic White racism and misogyny an organizing principle of policy. It turns off Black, Hispanic, and White working class voters. Poor Whites attempting to pay for gasoline don't feel like privileged oppressors. Some Democrats are backing off that message, but the idea still sticks to the Democratic brand. A win for Trump in 2024 will not stop the rise of Trump-remorse, however. It is nearly inconceivable that a second Trump term would be a time of national comity. Trump is a disrupter. Chaos is exhausting.
Cheney would be the credible GOP spokesperson for a return to "normalcy." She would represent conservatism, not populism. Her likely rivals for the GOP nomination would be people who had cast their lot with Trump and chaos. She might win pluralities in early multi-candidate races in Iowa and New Hampshire in 2028. That would position her as the new voice with a following. If Trump has worn out his welcome--as he did after four years in his first term--her early-state pluralities would turn into a majority in later primary states.
Will this happen? It is too soon to tell. She has a path and she is doing exactly what would serve this path. She is returning the GOP to its roots.