"Oh, Mr. Death, thou comest when I had thee least in mind."
Everyman, 16th Century England
"All we want are the facts, ma'am"
Sergeant Joe Friday, 20th Century USA
Discussion of Joe Biden's age is inherently political and controversial. This blog gets sharply negative comments. "Why are you bringing that up, Peter? Why do you hate Biden? Why are you trying to hurt Democrats?"
I asked Michael Wallace, a college classmate, to provide me some facts and to share his own opinion. After college Wallace joined the Peace Corps and then returned to obtain a Ph.D. from the JFK School of Government, where he developed some math and spreadsheet skills I lack. He retired in 2018 and enjoys daily walks with his dog Layla.
Here are the facts:
Guest Post by Michael Wallace
Being someone who wants to "put a number on it," I decided to calculate the likelihood of Biden and Trump dying in office if one of them is elected President in 2024. I used the Social Security Actuarial Life Table for my calculations (https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html#fn1). I rounded ages to the nearest year. I have not attempted to compensate for the personal health of anyone mentioned here.
If Joe Biden is re-elected, he will be 82 when he begins his second term in January 2025. His likelihood of dying before his second four-year term of office is over is 33%.
If Donald Trump is elected, he will be 78 when he takes office in January 2025. His likelihood of dying before January, 2029 is 23%.
Joe Biden's chance of dying before his current term of office is over (January 2025) is 14%.
Donald Trump's chance of dying before January 2025 is 10%.
These numbers are scary. Old people do not live forever. Older people are more likely to die than merely-somewhat-old people.
Someone Kamala Harris' age (58) has only a 2.3% chance of dying before January, 2025, and only a 5.5% chance of dying before January, 2029.
Someone Barack Obama's age (61) has a 3% chance of dying before January, 2025, and a 7% chance of dying before January 2029.
Someone Gavin Newsom's age (55) has only a 1.9% chance of dying before January, 2025, and only a 4.4% chance of dying before January, 2029.
We need younger people in the Oval Office!
In spreadsheet form:
I enjoyed reading this as long as it stuck to the facts. The last line, however, is totally subjective and is not supported by those facts. The issue is not whether a president does or does not die in office. The important thing is this: Who that president is, and what s/he stands for and can accomplish; and, equally important, who the vice president is, since that person would take office upon the president's death. I would vote for a Biden/Newsom ticket in a heartbeat.
Why don't we have younger candidates running for political offices? Here in Oregon, it boils down to money. Serving as an Oregon State Representative or Oregon State Senator is really a full time job, especially if you actually work in good faith to serve the people of your district. This means not only showing up and voting during legislative sessions (unlike the Oregon Republicans who walk out), but also holding public town halls, meeting with constituents in your district and learning about the challenges facing your constituents. But, you cannot support a family or even yourself on the low salary we pay our State Representatives and State Senators. So, younger people who are not retired or have substantial family wealth, just simply cannot afford to serve. As Democrats, we like to say we value diversity and want to elect representatives who truly represent the diversity of our communities. If we really want to have younger people serving, we have to seriously consider working to raise compensation for our state legislators and maybe even unpaid positions on city councils and school boards. This might be the only way to build a bench of strong, younger candidates.