And in the middle of the celebrations
I break down.
Boy, you're gonna carry that weight
Carry that weight a long time.
Boy, you're gonna carry that weight
Carry that weight a long time.
Paul McCartney and John Lennon, 1969, Abbey Road
The abortion issue just got worse for Republicans. Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk just ruled.
Yesterday this blog described a dilemma for Republican candidates in close general election races.
GOP abortion activists are running up the score. Donald Trump had promised Republicans he would make them winners. One of the issues was to reverse Roe v. Wade and to curtail abortion. I watched Trump at a rally in Boca Raton, Florida in March, 2016. He predicted resounding victory. I wrote:
He ended his talk assuring people that "You will start to win if I am elected. Win. Win. Win. You will win so much you will start to tire of it. But we will keep winning. You will call out to me, 'let's stop winning so much, we are tired of winning,' but I won't stop. I will keep us winning and winning."
He was right, and indeed more right than I understood at the time. The Trump movement is winning so much it hurts Republicans.
It happened again yesterday with the win in the form of Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk's ruling. Trump became president and appointed a very conservative, anti-abortion-activist judge in a judicial district with a single judge. That created an ideal spot for anti-abortion and other conservative litigants to file lawsuits. Kacsmaryk suspended the FDA's approval of the abortion drug mifepristone. The ban applies nationwide. That is winning.
Many Republican voters are celebrating. There is another group of Republican activists, commentators, and politicians who recognize the problem, and are thinking "let's stop winning so much." The ruling shuts down the cheapest, least-intrusive method for very early abortions. Those have the greatest popular support. The political center on this issue is for abortion to be early, safe, inexpensive, least intrusive for the woman, and invisible to the public. That is the abortion pill.
This issue will fester. In the reality of litigation and injunctions, nothing happens quickly. Kacsmaryk put a seven-day stay on his ruling. A contrary ruling was promptly filed in the State of Washington. The FDA will respond and may make the decision moot, which will create new litigation. Kacsmaryk's decision will likely creep up toward the Supreme Court, a hot potato they may send back to lower courts. There is potential that the conservative majority on the Supreme Court will make a sweeping decision to confirm Kacsmaryk's decision. The potential will heighten attention to the confirmation of three anti-abortion judges, who immediately overturned Roe v. Wade. This comes amid controversy over Judge Clarence Thomas' wife's effort to overturn the 2020 election, and now revelation of the expensive gifts he received from a billionaire activist with cases that came before his court.
The Texas ruling poured gasoline onto a fire. We have top-of-mind issue for multiple constituencies: Democrats, women, reproductive rights activists, and young-adult voters generally. The GOP looks immoderate. The new Supreme Court nominees said they would respect precedent. They didn't. This was touted as state-by-state local-control issue. That would have allowed women a safety valve of out-of-state travel. Now there may no safety valve. Red state legislatures keep pushing the rules, not exempting rape and incest, forcing women to be near death before allowing abortions, restricting travel, and creating criminal penalties for physicians, family, and friends.
Readers of this blog skew old. Perhaps they can remember their young adulthood as they negotiated relationships, careers, families, finances and fertility. Americans had become accustomed to having control of their reproductive choices. Republicans aren't tiptoeing in this minefield. When they get the power to act, they are running up the score. It is frightening to a majority of American voters.
Abortion bans are a giant weight on Republican candidates who want to look like reasonable moderates. It just got worse for them. They are part of a team that has no limits.
Republicans have nationalized the abortion issue. With Kacsmaryk's ruling, Oregonians--who thought that abortion rights were secure here--know that Republicans are dead set on outlawing abortion and even contraception, everywhere.
Cliff Bentz "explained" to me and the rest of the audience at a town hall meeting that, even though "I don't like to talk about my religion," nevertheless his catechism ought to be the law of the land.
Republicans have similarly nationalized the assault on democracy. What we saw in Tennessee is emblematic, as is the promise of Republicans to impeach "Judge Janet"; as is the disregard of voters' preferences by legislatures and governors in multiple red states.
I keep believing that this will bite them on their derrières.
I only hope it gets worse for the GOP.