I don't want to be an alarmist, but yes it can happen here.
In 1935 Sinclair Lewis wrote It Can't Happen Here. It was a book about how authoritarian fascism came to America. The Amazon summary of the book reads:
A cautionary tale about the fragility of democracy, it is an alarming, eerily timeless look at how fascism could take hold in America. Written during the Great Depression, when the country was largely oblivious to Hitler's aggression, it juxtaposes sharp political satire with the chillingly realistic rise of a president who becomes a dictator to save the nation from welfare cheats, sex, crime, and a liberal press.
America is not experiencing a Great Depression economy. Unemployment is low. There is inflation because people have money to spend. The Federal Reserve is trying to cool off the economy, not stimulate it. Yet people tell Gallup the country is on the wrong track. Only 16% are satisfied, 83% are unsatisfied.
My post yesterday gave a warning about democracy. I have attempted in this blog to understand the Trump phenomenon. I have considered him to be a performer, essentially doing an act, playing a larger-than-life character, always the center of attention. He is the disruptor, a character who willfully breaks the rules. Rules of law. Rules of politeness and decorum. Rules of fair play. People frustrated with the status quo liked his performance and still do. Like Archie Bunker a generation earlier, Trump says aloud forbidden things many people agree with. Even that most strait-laced of politicians, Mike Pence, expresses his honor and joy at being part of the Trump team -- except for that one moment when Trump incited a mob to kill him and overthrow the government.
I had thought that Trump-ism would not survive Trump. That was wrong. Trump's rivals are voicing Trump's issues, and the issues that brought Sinclair Lewis' fictional autocrat to power. Patriotism. Traditional faith. Elites. Anger over matters of sex and gender. Presidential candidate Nikki Haley called trans athletes "the women's issue of our time." Binary gender is significant enough to Oregon Republicans that state senators shut down the legislature by denying the senate a quorum. GOP presidential candidates talk about immigrants at the southern border coming to collect welfare on the backs of hardworking Americans. (Ask any farmer trying to get agricultural work done if that is their observation. They will tell you the opposite is the case.)
A significant number of Americans have lost commitment to democracy. A NYTimes/Sienna College poll in October included these results:
I get regular fundraising letters from candidates. I consider these a primary source. Ted Cruz's appeal is tested and re-tested to see what motivates his contributors. There is a market for this content and tone.
We have a legitimacy problem in America. It is bigger than just "crazy Trump" tweeting in the early morning hours.
Not only can it happen here, it is happening as we watch. I first read It Can't Happen Here about a year into **45s maladministration, and found it chilling, even before the depths of his petfidy were revealed, culminating in the botched Coup attempt of January 6th.
This is happening right now in Josephine County. In our three-commissioner system, where an authoritarian can take advantage of a majority that consistently votes for the Republican with the biggest signs, one bully can take over a county. Yesterday that bully ripped the heart out of Josephine County by coercing his perpetually confused fellow Trumpian on the Board to stop the county from collecting a tax-payer funded 4.5 cent levy that supported 4H, Master Gardeners and a host of other OSU Extension programs the community loved. This was done out of pure revenge against the university, powers emanating from "up north," what they perceived as a 4H embracing "wokism," because a staff workshop was held in Salem about dealing with LGBTQ kids, the elderly "elite" who access the Master Gardener programs funded by taxpayers (only the building and grounds), and a perception that 4H hates religion. This is one of many "revenge" votes this bully has instigated, against people who want to do something about the homeless, against department heads who don't conform to his ideology, against the local newspaper that sees through his arrogance, against the City of Grants Pass because the Mayor is perceived as a liberal, and on and on. Some citizens started a recall to get rid of this guy but couldn't get enough signatures during COVID to get it on the ballot. The failure of the recall only empowered him and now he's trying to influence the passage of a new county charter that would make all county elected positions partisan, guaranteeing that his extremist pals will hold on to power in this county for another 100 years if it passes.