Hush money to Stormy Daniels
Was Trump paying hush money to Stormy Daniels a crime?
Trump says he is the victim of a "corrupt, depraved, and weaponized justice system."
The Manhattan prosecutor of New York State is about to give Donald Trump a giant gift. It will taint all the other pending prosecutions. It will give credence to Trump's claim of "witch hunt." Democrats will look like they would do anything to get Trump.
Let's assume Trump really had sex with Stormy Daniels. He denies it, but having sex with a young woman when it was available to him, then denying it, is the kind of thing Trump would do. "When you are a star, they let you." There are photographs of Trump and Daniels together. She has a story about Trump's odd mushroom-shaped penis. There are a series of checks totaling $130,000, some signed by Trump, some by his business manager. The checks were purportedly "legal expenses" to his lawyer. The chain of checks equaled those paid out to Daniels, making a strong inference that the money was really for Daniels. Trump's lawyer at the time, Michael Cohen, testified that they were indeed hush-money payments. Cohen admitted his role, plead guilty to the crime of having participated in the sham, and was sentenced to nearly four years in prison.
We are witnessing the oldest story in the history of men, women, and marriage. Trump had sex with someone he shouldn't have and tried to hide it. This isn't complicated. It isn't right, but it is not uncommon either. Daniels wanted money and Trump had money to offer. Most Americans look at it as a family matter, not a criminal matter. Melania knew what she was getting when she married Trump. So did Hillary when she married Bill Clinton.
A quarter century ago Bill Clinton engaged in sex play with Monica Lewinsky. Republicans got word of it. Clinton was embarrassed and denied it. A special prosecutor who came up empty on a Clinton land investment switched his focus to the sex case. Bill Clinton tried damage control by lying about it. Republican officeholders called the denial a matter of grave national importance and justification for impeachment. Democrats minimized it, saying that America should slap Bill's wrist, censure him or something, and move on.
The world has changed since 1998. Republicans flipped sides after having been firm and righteous that Bill Clinton was a sexual predator and a danger to the rule of law. Now they defend Trump. The new GOP realizes that it likes that alpha-male, I-take-what-I want vibe. They prefer that to a prissy wimp like Mike Pence or a puritan scold like Liz Cheney. Those two are constrained by norms and laws, but Republicans now prefer a swashbuckling rebel. Democrats switched, too. Democratic partisans are cheering on the prosecution. Democrats should remember history. Instead of losing seats in the 1998 midterms, Democrats gained five. It was a major loss of face for Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, the person most associated with the GOP effort to "get" Bill Clinton.
The Manhattan D.A. is expected to prosecute the crime of "falsification of business records," which would be a misdemeanor. That has a fatal problem. The statute of limitations for that misdemeanor is two years, and that has lapsed. To turn this into a felony, where there is a five year statute of limitations, the prosecution needs to argue this was also a campaign finance violation, a federal crime. The prosecution asserts that paying Stormy Daniels via Michael Cohen was primarily motivated to influence the election, not hide this from Melania. There is another complication: A campaign violation is a federal crime, not a state one, so calling these two crimes for the purpose of a creating a state felony may not be legal. In addition to that hurdle, the case relies on the jury trying to guess Trump's motivation, and presume he wasn't also thinking about his wife Melania back at home, with a new baby Baron.
The prosecutor needs to walk the jury though a tightrope. If anyone on the jury has reasonable doubts about Trump's mixed motivations, Trump is acquitted, which is vindication for Trump. The general public, which will follow any trial by the media, will hear the story that this is a paperwork crime, false expense reporting combined with an in-kind campaign contribution made through the wrong vehicle. It will look like a stretch. Even if Trump is found guilty, Democrats will have established that they will go after Trump for technical paperwork crimes when the giant crime is Trump's effort to organize an overthrow of the government.
The case is a loser. The Bill Clinton history taught us that Americans don't really care that much about consensual sex by presidents, at least male ones. Apparently we expect it from alpha males. JFK apparently had sex with Marilyn Monroe. That doesn't destroy his reputation. He was young and good looking; she was hot and willing. What is the surprise here? Trump has re-affirmed that lesson multiple times.
Democrats are forgetting the lessons of history. Prosecute him for his real crimes. Not this.