What Trump said.
Trump's real message.
"One of the presidents of a big country stood up and said, [Voice of supplication] 'Well, sir, if we don't pay and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us?'
I said, [Decisive. Firm] 'You didn’t pay, you’re delinquent?'
He said, 'Yes, let’s say that happened.'
[Impatient] 'No, I would not protect you. [Faux anger] In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay. You gotta pay your bills.'”
I remember learning about coded messages when my parents tried to teach me to play the card game bridge. Bidding "one club" likely meant that you had a biddable hand but did not want clubs to be the suit. Your bid was really a question. If your partner responded two spades -- a skip over one spade -- it didn't mean your partner wanted a contract at two spades, it meant that the partner wanted to end up at a far higher contract than two spades. One must look past the obvious meaning to find the real one.
On its surface Trump's speech in South Carolina was just another moment of Trump was showing off and entertaining a rally crowd. No need to overthink this. The story fit the Trump narrative. He was the disciplinarian. The leader of some "big country" in Europe was a fearful supplicant, calling him "sir." It tells the story that Trump demands and gets respect. As Trump tells it, Democrats want to be buddies with everyone so America gets taken advantage of. Not Trump. Not America.
This is the Trump that made the words "You're fired!" a trademark. The audience cheered this. Some in the audience may have been flashing back to memories of the 1930s and 1940s, but in the present moment the story was about a strong leader who protects American taxpayers.
Like bidding in bridge, there was a lot more communicated.
First, it was a message to NATO that Trump sees it as a transaction. It is not a united front because aggression against one nation is an attack on democracy itself. NATO is a deal and deal terms get examined constantly to evaluate our interests in the moment. We might find conditions or loopholes in the contract that void it. What's in it for us?
There is a message to Putin. Invasion by Russia isn't anathema to Trump. Indeed, it might serve U.S. interests. Historic Russia is not contained in its current boundaries. Poland is a Slavic country whose territory from time to time has been part of Russia, as has Ukraine. Putin mentioned Poland multiple times in his interview with Tucker Carlson, and Putin made the extraordinary and false claim that Poland's aggression started World War II. Germany and the Soviet Union had acted out of necessity when they invaded Poland, he said. If Putin were to claim that Poland attacked Russia, then under the contract the U.S. has no obligation.
There is a message to the world. NATO is no longer a resilient bipartisan American guarantee. It is now a partisan promise. NATO will last in name until Trump is elected or until Republicans in Congress defund it. NATO isn't a marriage; it is a domestic partnership where each party keeps separate bank accounts, asks for separate checks when they dine out, and where each person dates other people. Trump is openly flirting with a rival. The marriage is over. Europe needs to make other plans.
Democrats find parallels between this moment and the fascism of the 1930s. It is alarming to them. Not so much to Republican voters, who see Trump as a corrective to globalism in diplomacy and trade. Trump represents a muscular America and an America that respects self-interested muscularity in other countries -- Russia, Hungary, China, North Korea. The catastrophe of World War II was a long time ago. Carl Sandberg wrote The Grass in 1918, after The Great War:
Pile the bodies high at Austerlitz and Waterloo.
Shovel them under and let me work—
I am the grass; I cover all.
And pile them high at Gettysburg
And pile them high at Ypres and Verdun.
Shovel them under and let me work.
Two years, ten years, and passengers ask the conductor:
What place is this?
Where are we now?
I am the grass.
Let me work.
It took longer than two years and ten years, but a great many Americans have forgotten the lessons of muscular nationalism.
It's not like Trump pays his bills.
Peter, is it possible to read your blog in large print? Just can’t hide the cryin' eyes…