It sounds crazy.
The public might reward the House Republicans if they use the debt ceiling to crash our economy.
It is cynical. It is unpatriotic. It is smart game theory.
Democrats should not presume House Republicans are making an empty threat when they threaten to damage America's credit standing or trigger a recession. It would be the "burn it down" gambit, and the arsonist comes out the winner.
Rewarding the hostage taker, not the victim?? It is unintuitive, but let's consider primate behavior in our cousins, the gorilla. Gorillas live in small groups consisting of a single, powerful male gorilla, who looks after a harem of a few females, plus their young offspring. The remaining bachelors make longing looks at the harem from outside. Each ponders whether and when to challenge the male. If a new male takes over, his first task is to kill all the infants from the other male so that the females go back into estrus and bear the offspring of the new male. From time to time a bachelor will rush in, grab an infant from the group and kill it, then run off. The female will grieve. Then, often, she will leave the group and pair up with the murderer. Why would she join him? Because she realizes that her former male protector could not protect her infants from murderers like him.
It is grotesque, but it makes sense. There is no room for sentiment or prissy morality. Survival is on the line. If you can't beat him, join him.
It isn't just gorillas. In tough neighborhoods, where the police are weak and cannot protect citizens from violent actors, it is necessary for citizens to pay "protection money." "It would be a shame if a fire were to burn down this lovely store you have." The Mafia sometimes carries through with the threat. It makes a vivid physical message of police weakness and the credibility of future threats. The prudent person allies with the ones with the power. "Nice economy you have here. If we just had a GOP president like Trump, then this kind of mishap wouldn't happen."
The current political reward structure incentivizes Republicans to trigger a debt ceiling crisis. The machinations that put Kevin McCarthy into the Speakership shows that the tipping point Republican demands hard knuckle politics. "Normal" non-MAGA Republicans are intimidated. Some cheer. Some keep their heads down. They all go along, lest they be outed as RINOs. They saw what happened to Liz Cheney. The Freedom Caucus is not a majority of the GOP, but they now lead it.
But won't the persuadable middle of American general election voters punish Republicans, not Biden, if they see that Republicans provoked the damage? Probably not. Biden carries more risk of being blamed. Possibly a Bill Clinton or Barack Obama would have the oratorical skills to push blame back onto Republicans--and indeed that happened in prior debt crisis events. A Democratic president would need to explain the mess amid in-the-face reality of a damaged financial system, a recession, and unemployment. It is a hard task for any president. Biden is no Churchill. Moreover, the job of sending a persuasive message cannot be delegated. Delegation would confirm Biden's weakness, not the strength of his team. See! The weak president needs to be propped up.
The GOP can muddle the issue of fault. These issues are complicated and Republicans can argue they are protecting America from profligate Democrats. What would not be complicated is that the U.S. would be in distress. Misery speaks for itself. Biden would be left holding the bag. After all, he is the president. The worse the bag, the better for the GOP. The cynical move is for the GOP is to wreck the bag.
Will they? The Freedom Caucus is insisting on it, and doing so strengthens its hand inside the GOP, and the GOP's hand in the upcoming election.
Sickening, but I have to agree with Peter's assessment.