"To know, know, know him
is to love, love, love him
Just to see him smile,
makes my life worthwhile."
Phil Spector, "To Know him is to Love him," 1958
College classmate Peter Lemieux writes a data-rich analysis of politics in his website Politics by the Numbers -- politicsbythenumbers.org. It is written "for the numerically inclined." He charts, graphs, and analyzes relationships in national politics.
He wrote me and fellow classmates, saying that he noted and graphed a very strong relationship between how well a politician is known by the public and how much he or she is liked. Apparently -- usually -- we warm up to politicians as we get to know them.
“Four years ago I wrote about the strong relationship between a candidate's "name recognition" and favorability toward that candidate. In that case I was looking at the Democrats. I ran the same analysis for this year's Republican contenders.”
Peter Lemieux puts into words what we are seeing here. People who dare cross Trump become outcasts:
“The line represents the best-fit regression for all candidates except Chris Christie, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, and Mike Pence. Now it's Christie in the DeBlasio role, but echoes of ‘Hang Mike Pence’ can be seen in his low rating as well. Those three are seen by most Republican voters as anti-Trumpers."
Four years ago DeBlazio was the outlier, being well known but not well liked. The close fit of most candidates along the line of being known suggests that presidential candidates are good at selling themselves. We may say we "hate politicians," but that is in the abstract.
I get occasional comments from Republican readers observing that this blog "has a fixation on Trump" and that I exaggerate his influence on the Republican Party. I wish that were so. Alas, it is not. The GOP is Trump's party. There is one way to be disliked by Republican voters, and that is to be known for defying Trump.
To remind readers about the abbreviations:
Candidates along the trend line:
TRU is Donald Trump
DES is Ron DeSantis
SCT is Tim Scott
HLY is Nikki Haley
RAM is Vivek Ramaswami
ELD is Larry Elder
BUR is Doug Burgum
HRD is William Hurd
JHN is Perry Johnson
LAF is Steve Laffey
Candidates below the trend line:
PEN is Mike Pence
CHR is Chris Christie
HUT is Asa Hutchison
Lemieux's chart is based on data from polling by Monmouth University.
Familiarity breeds attempt.
Or so a long-ago girlfriend said.
In Pence's case, attempt at hanging.
I'd be unsurprised by attempted violence against the three Republican outliers, by outliars.