Up Close, with Peter Sage
Observations and commentary on American politics and culture. Now read by 3,000 people every day.
SUNDAY, APRIL 21, 2024
Easy Sunday: Build a Biden or Trump voter.
Identity isn't destiny.
(But it's the way to bet.)
The Economist magazine has a fun tool. As of Sunday morning it is available and not behind a paywall.
Surprise: By demographics, Joe Biden should be a Trump voter, just barely. After all, he is White, age 75+, Catholic, male, and from a Delaware suburb, mitigated by the fact that he is well-educated.
An archetypal Biden voter is some combination of urban, well-educated, non-religious, Black, from a blue state, gay or bi-sexual, female, and young. The archetypal Trump voter is rural, White, less-educated, Evangelical or Mormon, from a red state, heterosexual, and male.
Do the characteristics make the voter? I don't know. I like to think people have minds and agency. We make decisions. We have free will. But the correlations are very strong.
Click on the tool with the four quadrants to see the most reliably Biden voters in the bottom left. You find this:
In upper right Trump corner one finds this:
Who would be in the middle? Someone with characteristics of different groups.
That would include me. I am White, male, heterosexual, and over age 70. I live in a small city and I farm rural land. I am prosperous enough for taxes to be an issue. That would make me a Trump voter. But I am pretty well educated, am in a bi-racial marriage, and am non-religious. That makes me a Biden voter.
Well, that was fun. Thanks.
82% of "my" group are for Biden, and I'm surprised. I'm an old (77), straight, bald, white guy with guns and a truck (and until recently, cattle), an Army veteran. But there were other factors that were important; apparently guns, trucks, and hair follicles are not dispositive.