Another Russian legislator fell from a hotel balcony.
He had criticized the Ukraine war.
He was in trouble. He had written, then deleted, a WhatsApp message about Russian bombing in Ukraine:
“It’s extremely difficult to call all this anything but terror.”
That was a mistake. Pavel Antov was a member of Putin's political party in the Russian legislature. He was chair of the committee on agriculture and ecology. He was a wealthy meat magnate.
It was the second death in two days. One of Antov's travel companions to India, Vladimir Bidenov, was found dead at the same hotel two days prior. Local police speculated that Bidenov had a stroke and Antov died by suicide, depressed over the unexpected death of his friend. Yeah, maybe.
These hard-to-explain deaths of Putin critics and potential rivals are taking place almost once a week, which goes beyond weird. I listed these in a post on December 21, "A series of accidental deaths." Now there are two more. People in the Russian political class don't think they are accidents. They think they are assassinations. People who criticize Putin have heart attacks and fall from heights.
I consider what we are seeing in Russia a warning for the United States. No, American politicians and business leaders aren't mysteriously falling out of high windows, not yet. But we are experiencing a gradual change in our political environment. Political violence is getting normalized. It is being excused, minimized, and contextualized into a framework where violence is necessary and just. Mainstream leaders are voicing it or tolerating it being voiced. Some of this is Trump and his brand as the bad boy rule-breaker. In a crooked and violent world it takes a crooked and violent leader. But it isn't just Trump. It is widespread within the GOP.
We know January 6 was not a one day protest that got out of hand. It was part of a multi-month plan to overturn the election. More troubling is that now, with the hindsight and cool heads of two years, the GOP House condemns investigation of the January 6 violence. Many Representatives and Senators praise the insurrection. Trump declares that if put back in office he will pardon the participants. This doesn't shock Americans. Indeed, GOP voters support it and Republican officeholders will support his re-election. After all, the rioters were patriots.
Meanwhile, people on the populist right routinely make references to "2nd Amendment remedies." This isn't fighting British redcoats. It is taking arms against American military and law enforcement. Militia groups plot to kidnap a Michigan governor. The response is what one gets from a crowd at a ball game. Kill the ump! Cheer the home team!
Trump goes to Michigan, criticizes Governor Whitmer, and leads Michigan crowds chanting "Lock her up." Lock her up, not the kidnap plotters.
Extremist kooks we will always have with us, but what is significant is that "responsible" GOP officeholders minimize and defend talk of political violence. Marjorie Taylor Green, who tweeted about killing Nancy Pelosi, and Paul Gosar, who tweeted about killing AOC, are welcomed back into the good graces of the GOP. Kevin McCarthy needs their votes to become Speaker. Meanwhile, Kyle Rittenhouse becomes a GOP poster boy for self-help and vigilante justice.
The political left made its own moral and political mistakes. The George Floyd murder gave the left a chance to make a good, careful point about racial violence in America. Instead, too often, Democratic leaders made a careless point. Left leaders did not adequately distinguish between peaceful protest and street violence. Biden said the right things, but Biden cannot command public attention as a spokesperson. Democratic mayors and governors acted torn. Democrats failed to read the room. The public will tolerate peaceful protest. It fears violence and disorder. Democrats couldn't bear to criticize their own presumed allies who said that violence was the inevitable response to injustice. Street violence nearly cost Democrats the presidency in 2020 and it remains a drag on the party still.
We see the obvious in Russia. Putin is maintaining control through terror. It is harder to see the creeping trouble in America, but it is present. Americans are becoming accustomed to watching illegal and violent political behavior. It isn't as shocking and wrong as it needs to be to preserve our democracy. Violence can escalate. It can move in the direction of Putin, toward a terror state in which candidates for office are scared off by the person who controls the military. Maybe Pete Buttigieg or Ron DeSantis will have heart attacks and Ted Cruz falls off a balcony. That would probably be enough to send a message. Or it can move in the direction of self-help by individuals, in the manner of Sirhan Sirhan and John Hinckley, Jr., and before him John Wilkes Booth. That, too, changes the course of events.
We are entering a dangerous time.
I'm not sure how Ted Cruz falling off a balcony would hurt democracy. Just saying.