December, 2019. The headline for a Guest Post by Tony Farrell:
"I believe the only winning ad strategy is to signal empathy for non-college whites in swing states who remain on the fence."
Tony Farrell, Brand Strategist
That Guest Post stands up well under the test of time. Farrell gave advice to Biden's 2020 campaign. He urged Biden to avoid demonizing Trump. Instead he should position himself as the candidate of the electable, moderate center of the Democratic Party, as distinguished from its progressive left. Farrell said he believed "that radical progressiveness is the greatest threat to a Democratic win, embodied in the far-left stances of Warren and Sanders." Farrell is a Democratic centrist. He thought a "calming, fair-minded leader" was what would win the Democratic primary and then the general election.
Farrell is again giving campaign advice to Biden. This time he sees the GOP candidate's weak spot as abortion.
Republicans are committed to the losing side of the argument, so hammer on that point. Farrell was a classmate at college, a graduate of its Business School. He had a long, successful career as a brand strategist at The Gap, The Nature Company, and The Sharper Image. He is a longtime fan of Emmylou Harris.
Guest Post by Tony Farrell
Is It Time for Biden to Sell Like Trump?
In some worlds, it seems flattering to be told one is “ahead of your time” but, in my world, that’s about the worst slur ever tossed at a marketer or salesman. Being right on timing is everything; ahead or behind is not valued at all. Now is not the time for Biden to be selling.
Biden is correct to stand back and let the Republicans wrestle with their much more difficult issues. As of now, Biden has no opponent!
I believe Biden is doing a masterful job as President, from guiding NATO in support of Ukraine to swiftly enlisting bipartisan support for his infrastructure bill. His State of the Union address proved he can credibly convey empathy for the white working class that, today, supports Trump. Diehard Trump supporters are largely intractable but nonetheless should not be demonized. Polls are disappointing, but no matter. Biden has a great team (compare State and Justice to what was there before!) and there’s time enough for selling. The question is, sell what to whom?
The time will be ripe when the Republican team is chosen. And what a mess that choosing is going to be! I assume the nominee will not be Trump because of legal troubles and, more importantly, Trump the salesman is no longer able to credibly promise anything, now that he’s had his four unproductive years as President, plus the 2020 loss. In 2016, his brilliant selling skills (e.g., “making no small promises” and “speaking plain, understandable language”) worked to run circles around marketing-challenged Hillary. I doubt Trump will get another bite at the apple, but if he does, Biden can relax and Republicans will be wiped out in the general.
For the sake of this post, let’s assume DeSantis wins the nomination; let’s say Haley joins him as VP candidate. Once nominated, that’s when the ghost of Roe v. Wade will dominate to an overwhelming degree. Many have commented that the abortion ruling was the ultimate “dog catching the bus” event, and now, for Republicans, such a losing hand. Not every election turns on a single issue but I believe 2024 will turn on how the new morality state intends to enforce and punish those who engage in anything touching abortion.
It’s not a good look. Pressing questions on abortion directed at Republicans will generate an embarrassment of riches for Democrats. Regardless of the deep, serious questions about the morality of abortion, most Americans (and certainly a majority of women) will see this election as a singular referendum on the actions of the state in this realm. The turnout to fight for abortion rights will be huge, while the MAGA crowd (without Trump) will sulk at home, and not vote.
If it’s Biden who’s running, he just needs to keep doing what he’s doing and make it as clear as possible to all reasonable voters what the stakes are.
Taking off my marketing hat and putting on my bloviating-blogger cap, I believe Biden is too old to run again, despite his brilliant success as President. I also believe Harris is a losing proposition, especially if voters believe she’s likely to assume the Presidency before the term ends. I’m one of those rare voters (I guess) for whom a candidate’s choice of running mate can be determinative. The VP choice reveals judgment, and picking a Sarah Palin or a Dan Quayle is fatal, to me…unless the alternative is clearly horrible. So, ease Harris into another job before Biden steps aside for a stronger Democratic candidate, like Gavin Newsom.
Meanwhile, let’s just watch the Republican food fight. Democrats need to know their opponent, and there is time enough.
Tony, as a fellow brand marketing professional, I think you hit a home run in this post. You are dead on with all your observations and suggestions. I only question, DeSantis, I think he won't make it. I think Haley would be the smarter move, although abortion is definitely the hot button for the election. Oh, and I especially loved your "ahead of your time," timing is everything in marketing.