$5 gasoline. Some history.
High oil prices mean high gasoline prices.
There is a world price for oil.
I don't blame Biden. I don't blame Trump, either.
The price of oil in the U.S. is in close sync with the price of oil in Europe. Oil moves from producing countries to wherever it gets the best price. "Brent" is Europe's price, in blue. West Texas Intermediate is the U.S. price, in red. Demand is up all over in 2021 as the world's economies have come back to life. Most people consider that a good thing. I do.
St. Louis Fed
In 2018-2019 Saudi Arabia and Russia were having a price war over oil. The two countries were competing for market share and Russia had a vulnerability. Russia needed a higher price to sustain its oil-export based economy. Saudi Arabia could exploit that by increasing production and lower the world price. It didn't just hurt Russia. It caused a political problem in the USA. U.S. drilling rigs were shutting down. Oil-patch employment was down. Republican officeholders in oil-producing states were unhappy.
During the 2020 COVID year of low demand, the oil glut became extreme. COVID had us shut in, so we weren't driving as much. Our minds were on COVID; we took cheap gasoline for granted.
The fracking technology that flourished in Obama's second term created energy independence for the U.S. Fracked oil is more expensive to produce. It was uneconomical during the Saudi-Russia price war. Oil-state Republican officeholders filed legislation demanding American troops be withdrawn from Saudi Arabia unless the Saudi government cut oil production. That gave Trump the leverage he needed to demand Saudi Arabia reduce oil production. They agreed to it. Russia was happy. American oil producers were happy. American oil-state officeholders were happy. Trump was happy. Americans were still out of work and businesses were shuttered, but at least gasoline was cheap.
Now that the U.S. economy is rebounding demand for oil is in better sync with supply. The recent spike in oil prices from a likely-sustainable $60-80 dollars a barrel to over $100/barrel is due to the uncertainty of supply due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
High gasoline prices today are not an American problem, caused by neither Biden nor Trump. They are a world problem caused by uncertainty over whether a pipeline or refinery or shipping route might get closed. There is, after all, a shooting war going on. People who want energy independence in the U.S. for geopolitical security can get their wish, but it comes at a cost. The U.S. has a great deal of oil for our needs, but only if we can frack it to get it. We can produce as much as we need, but not necessarily the kinds of oil that we need, and not at the lowest price. Even if we are energy independent, the U.S. will still import it and export it.
Biden political opponents want to blame him for high gasoline prices. "I did that" stickers are posted at gas pumps. One can buy 100 of them for $5.99 on Amazon.
Fox News complains that Biden failed to persuade Saudi Arabia to increase production. "Biden failed!," Fox News says. That is correct. He didn't offer them something they really wanted. That may be a good thing. I am uncomfortable with the U.S. being dependent on Saudi oil, and therefore under their influence on our policies as regards Israel, Iran, Yemen, and elsewhere. American policy toward Saudi Arabia and Russia is friendlier under Trump than under Biden. Biden's position is easily defensible, especially now given the Russian invasion, but he needs to advocate it.
The current spike in gasoline prices is a political loser for Biden as it stand now because Biden has not yet put it into a context of American energy and policy independence. His task is made harder, too, because the voters and officeholders in energy-producing states--the people most helped by a policy of higher sustainable oil prices in U.S. markets--have little desire to credit Biden. The task is made even harder because the American left is hostile to oil producers. We need them but hate them. Any Biden policy which creates energy independence keeps fossil fuel companies in business a while longer. That is defined as helping climate-destroying price gougers. The American left wants energy independence without fossil fuels, but the technology and infrastructure for that is in the future. We need our tanks filled today.
Further reading: Raw Story Paul Krugman, NY Times